The Ministry of Planning and Investment's General Statistics Office held a press conference on September 29 to cover the economic situation from the first nine months of the year.
GDP in the third quarter is estimated to have increased by 5.33 per cent on-year, the lowest growth seen since before 2011, apart from the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021. However, this is seen as positive when compared to the growth of 2023's previous quarters, 3.28 per cent in the first, and 4.05 per cent in the second.
GDP has increased by 4.24 per cent over the first nine months of the year, also only better than the pandemic period. The government's target growth for 2023 is 6.5 per cent, while last year's was 8.85 per cent.
The driving force for the economy continues to be the service sector, which has grown by 6.32 per cent since the start of the year. The industrial and construction sectors still face many issues, with demand falling by 1.65 per cent on-year.
Manufacturing increased by 1.98 per cent, which was the lowest increase for the period 2011-2023.
The trade surplus so far the year is estimated at $21.68 billion, compared to $6.9 billion last year.
| ||World Bank forecasts growth of 4.7 per cent in 2023 |
According to the latest report by the World Bank, Vietnam’s economy is expected to grow by 4.7 per cent in 2023, with a slow recovery to 5.5 per cent in 2024 and 6 per cent in 2025.
| ||Headwinds weakening Vietnam’s economic recovery |
Vietnam’s GDP growth was only 3.32 per cent in the first quarter compared to the same quarter of the previous year. Growth accelerated in the second quarter but only to 4.14 per cent – very far from the rapid pace of 7-8 per cent annually before 2020.
| ||Vietnam's Q3 GDP poised for growth, Standard Chartered reports |
In the latest global research dispatch on September 22, Standard Chartered projected a 5.1 per cent on-year ascension in Vietnam’s Q3 GDP, a leap from the 4.1 per cent growth witnessed in Q2.
| ||Soft momentum likely for Q3: UOB |
United Overseas Bank (UOB) maintains the full-year growth forecasts of 5.2 per cent for 2023 and 6 per cent for 2024, pencilling a projected 5.6 per cent on-year growth in Q3 this year and 7.6 per cent for Q4.