In the latest global research dispatch on September 22, Standard Chartered projected a 5.1 per cent on-year ascension in Vietnam’s Q3 GDP, a leap from the 4.1 per cent growth witnessed in Q2.
The latter half of the year is set for a substantial rebound, riding on the back of Q2's initial recovery signs. The bank's outlook for 2023 remains steady, with a GDP growth estimate of 5.4 per cent.
Standard Chartered anticipates September’s figures to marginally outpace those of August, predominantly buoyed by retail sales. The forecast details an impressive 8.2 per cent annual growth in September's retail sales, though exports might dip by 6.2 per cent.
Imports are slated to shrink by 7 per cent, while industrial production growth could see a surge to 3.2 per cent.
Furthermore, the trade surplus might slim down to a mere $1.3 billion. The inflation index is set to tick up to 3.2 per cent on-year from August's 3 per cent, steered primarily by the education, housing, and food sectors.
Conversely, transport-led inflation appears to be subsiding. In the tourism front, Vietnam welcomed approximately 7.8 million international travellers in 2023's initial eight months, closely nearing the year's target of 8 million.
Yet, the resurgence treads on uncertain grounds - with trade persistently in decline, potential stagnancy in manufacturing, and foreign direct investment recovery prospects remaining indistinct.
Tim Leelahaphan, economist for Thailand and Vietnam, Standard Chartered Bank said, “While easing price pressures should allow policymakers to focus on growth, renewed concerns about an inflation rebound in the latter half of the year could deter such a move. With the economic recovery starting to gain momentum, there should be less need for monetary policy support.”
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