Vietnam among the world’s top 15 trading nations

Vietnam's export growth during 2021-2025 (unit: billions of USD). Source: Ministry of Industry and Trade

The past five years have seen robust expansion in trade scale, particularly exports, leading to a significant improvement in the trade balance and the maintenance of a continuous trade surplus. At its peak in 2023, Vietnam posted a trade surplus of more than $28 billion.

According to a report from the Department of Customs under the Ministry of Finance in January, import-export activities during the 2021-2025 period stood out as a key highlight, with cumulative trade turnover approaching $3.8 trillion.

In the peak year of 2025, Vietnam’s total import-export value reached $930 billion, up 18.2 per cent on-year. These figures indicate that Vietnam has significantly expanded its trade activities, particularly in key sectors such as electronics, high technology, machinery and equipment, textiles and garments, and footwear, strengthening its role in regional and global industrial and supply chains.

Alongside the expansion in scale, Vietnam’s position on the global trade map has also improved markedly. These results have placed Vietnam among the world’s top 15 trading nations, according to the Ministry of Industry and Trade.

While total import-export turnover stood at only around $328 billion in 2015, the figure had risen to $786 billion by 2024 and surged to over $930 billion by the end of 2025.

Despite major global disruptions over the past nearly six years, Vietnam’s goods trade has continued to perform strongly, demonstrating the resilience of its manufacturing and export sectors.

This year, import-export activity is still expected to have strong prospects, supported by a large and increasingly solid production base reinforced by domestic and foreign direct investment flows, as well as by the utilisation of market access opportunities under free trade agreements covering 65 economies worldwide.

At the seminar on Vietnam's economic outlook last week, Nguyen Xuan Thanh, senior lecturer at the Fulbright School of Public Policy and Management, said that import-export activities are expected to remain a bright spot in Vietnam’s economic landscape in 2026, with stable growth.

"Businesses continue to effectively tap into major export markets such as the US, China, the EU and ASEAN. If export performance is maintained at 2025 levels, shipments to the US and China alone could exceed $220 billion," he said.

Conversely, in a report from early January, Singapore-based UOB cautioned that exports could come under pressure due to the impact of US tariff policies. A potential scenario is that export orders may decline as earlier frontloading demand weakens, and higher prices dampen purchasing power among US consumers.

Additional challenges stem from unpredictable global economic developments, including geopolitical tensions, shifts in trade and investment policies among major economies, and the growing trend of global economic fragmentation.

HSBC, while acknowledging that exports are showing resilience, also warned of the possibility of declining orders. “Vietnam is not immune to the risk of a global trade slowdown,” the bank noted.

As a result, major export-oriented businesses and industries must closely monitor changes in US tariff policies as well as technical barriers imposed by various markets, in order to adapt appropriately.

From a broader international trade perspective, the World Trade Organization forecasts that global merchandise trade volumes will recover, with growth of around 2.5 per cent in 2026, while trade in services is expected to expand steadily by approximately 4.1 per cent.

This recovery is occurring amid persistent trade protectionism, supply chain disruptions and uneven export demand across regions, meaning that global trade growth is still expected to remain slower than in the pre-pandemic period.

Vietnam’s wood exports surpass $17 billion Vietnam’s exports of wood and wood products recorded positive results in 2025, exceeding $17.2 billion, despite falling short of the $18 billion target. The US remained the sector’s largest market, accounting for nearly 55 per cent of total export turnover.

Vietnam forecasts rice exports of 7.73 million tonnes in 2026 Vietnam is expected to export around 7.73 million tonnes of rice in 2026, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment (MAE).

GEVA a launchpad for Vietnam’s agricultural exports Green Export Acceleration through Voluntary Sustainability Standards (GEVA) is expected to become a pioneering model that empowers agricultural enterprises to integrate sustainability standards into their business strategies and drive green transformation.