Vietnam’s beer market expects big changes in 2020

A production line of Sabeco (Photo: VNA)

The information was released in the Vietnam Industry Research and Consultancy (VIRAC)’s latest report.

With a population structure among the youngest in the world – 56 percent of the population is under the age of 30 – Vietnam Beer Association (VBA) predicts that total consumer expenses in Vietnam will double and reach approximately 173 billion USD by 2020.

According to a Nielsen report, 56 percent of Vietnamese consumers are under 30 years old and Vietnam’s middle class will double from 12 million (in 2014) to 33 million (in 2020). It is estimated that Vietnam will have two million more consumers joining the middle class, becoming the fastest-growing middle class segment in Asia.

The strong export markets of Vietnam, such as ASEAN countries and China, are all markets with high growth in food and beverage consumption. Along with a series of free trade agreements, Vietnamese food and beverages have been largely able to access key free export markets (without tariffs).

In the context of international economic integration, mergers and acquisitions (M&A) will contribute to raise the size, competitiveness, market share, reputation and efficiency of larger businesses and start a new development cycle.

For example, Thai Beverage, a company owned by a Thai billionaire, spent 110 trillion VND (4.8 billion USD) to buy 53.59 percent of Saigon Beer Alcohol and Beverage Company (Sabeco) in December 2017. This is not only the largest M&A deal in Vietnam’s history, but also the largest M&A deal in the Asian beer industry.

Beer consumption

In 2019, the total beer production will reach more than five billion litres (up 22.9 percent over the same period in 2018); consumption reached over four billion litres (up 29.1 percent over the same period last year). Beer sales reached over 65 billion VND (up 0.5 percent over the same period last year). Regarding types of consumption, canned beer consumption accounted for 66.8 percent of total beer consumption in Vietnam, followed by bottled beer 29.9 percent; while draft beer is 3.1 percent and accounts for a modest market share of fresh beer at 0.1 percent.

Regarding imports, the imported beer output reached more than 37 million litres (an increase of 8.9 percent compared to the same period in 2018). The three main sources of beer supply in Vietnam are the Netherlands (25 percent), Mexico (17 percent) and Belgium (16 percent). Compared to beer consumption in Vietnam, beer imports into the country account for a relatively small proportion. Domestic and FDI beer enterprises dominate the domestic market, with the advantage of cheap beer prices, which suits the taste of the majority of customers.

Regarding exports, the export beer output increased 46 million litres over the previous year, reaching 45.87 million USD. The export volume decreased by about 7 percent over the same period. The main reason is that Vietnam’s beer quality has not been highly appreciated and not created a brand in the international market. Equatorial Guinea (about 20 percent) is the largest market for Vietnamese beer.

Challenges

The law coming into effect on January 1 has been effective in adjusting the drinking habits of many people. It is forecasted that the beer industry growth rate in the year will not maintain the double-digit level as in previous years; reach 6-7 percent in the following years, although each year Vietnam has 1 million more people of legal age to drink alcoholic beverages.

In the stock market, shares of the two “giants” in the beer industry, Sabeco and Habeco, have dropped from 0.4 percent to 0.8 percent. Meanwhile, the share value of the entire industry will decline by nearly 13 percent in 2019.