Banks poised for Q3 profit growth amid margin pressure

Nam A Bank has announced its business results for the first nine months of 2026, reporting pre-tax profit of more than $188 million, up 25 per cent on-year, while total assets approached $18.6 billion.

The bank’s return on equity reached nearly 20 per cent, while non-interest income accounted for 26 per cent of total operating income. Revenue from trading in valuable papers rose 30 per cent on-year, contributing 5 per cent of pre-tax profit.

As of September 30, Nam A Bank's funds mobilised from economic organisations and individual customers, together with the issuance of valuable papers, reached nearly $10.16 billion, up almost 20 per cent from the end of 2025.

Credit growth continues to be a key driver of bank profitability. Photo: baodautu.vn

Total outstanding credit rose 10.8 per cent from the outset of the year. With a full-year 2026 pre-tax profit target of $248 million, Nam A Bank had achieved nearly 80 per cent of its full-year plan.

Ahead of the Q3/2026 financial reporting season, several securities companies have released forecasts for the business performance of listed companies.

Banks remain among the sectors attracting considerable attention, as earnings trends among banking stocks, often dubbed ‘blue chips’ in local stock market, have a significant influence on overall market performance.

VPBank is forecast to maintain its profit growth momentum, supported by credit expansion, strong deposit mobilisation and increasing contributions from companies across its ecosystem.

MBS, VCBS, TCBS, VDSC and SSI have all placed VPBank among the private-sector banks expected to post the highest Q3 profits in their coverage universes. Several securities companies forecast that VPBank's pre-tax profit in Q3/2026 will exceed $400 million, driven by credit growth and the business performance of its subsidiaries.

Viecombank Securities (VCBS) forecasts VPBank's Q3 pre-tax profit at $430.8 million, up 18 per cent on-year. According to VCBS, the bank's credit growth is expected to remain positive, supported by a credit growth limit above the industry average and a recovery in retail lending.

According to MBS, combined profits at the 13 listed banks under its observation could increase 19.1 per cent on-year. State-owned banks are expected to be the main growth drivers, benefiting from lower funding costs and reduced provisioning pressure.

Credit growth remains a key driver of banks' earnings momentum. VCBS also believes that participation in financing major infrastructure projects could benefit some lenders from new policies designed to support liquidity.

Vietcombank is expected to remain the most profitable bank in the sector in Q3/2026, as it has in previous years. MBS estimates that the lender could post after-tax profit of $466.1 million, up more than 29 per cent on-year.

The bank’s net interest income in Q3 is forecast to rise 34 per cent, while its non-interest income is expected to increase 3 per cent. BIDV and VietinBank, the other two listed state lenders, are also forecast to achieve profit growth of more than 20 per cent.

Among private-sector banks, HDBank is forecast to record the strongest profit growth in the industry, at more than 50 per cent, supported by credit growth of around 35 per cent, well above the sector average.

Non-interest income is also expected to improve by 15 per cent on-year, driven by the development of subsidiaries such as HD Saison and HDS.

Several other lenders, including ACB, Techcombank, VPBank, TPBank and VIB, could post double-digit profit growth. OCB is forecast to record a more modest improvement in after-tax profit of around 6 per cent.

By contrast, profits at Sacombank, LPBank and Eximbank could decline in Q3, mainly due to higher loan-loss provisioning costs compared with the same period last year and narrowing net interest margins.

Improved business performance is expected to continue into Q4 of 2026, laying the groundwork for full-year pre-tax profit growth, although funding costs remain under pressure as deposit interest rates rise.

The banking sector’s credit growth of around 12 per cent in the first nine months of the year has been one of the key factors supporting earnings across the sector.

The Q4/2026 Business Trends Survey of credit institutions, released recently by the State Bank of Vietnam's Forecasting and Statistics department, shows that 86.1 per cent of credit institutions expect pre-tax profit in 2026 to grow on-year. Meanwhile, 10.4 per cent anticipate a decline, while 3.5 per cent expect profits to remain unchanged.

Internal factors continue to be viewed as drivers of business performance, with 73.9 to 76.3 per cent of credit institutions saying these factors would help improve their business conditions in Q3 and throughout 2026.

Business conditions in Q3 were assessed more positively than in Q2, although optimism about the full-year outlook was revised down slightly from the previous survey.

Credit institutions also considered external factors to continue having a positive impact on business performance.

According to Vu The Quan, head of Research at Vietcap Securities, banking sector profits are expected to grow by 18-20 per cent in 2026. This forecast is based on the portfolio of banking stocks covered by Vietcap.

“However, banks also need to pay close attention to asset quality, particularly following a period of strong credit growth in 2025 and rising interest rates from late 2025, which have remained high to date,” he said.

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