Outstanding credit forecast to grow 14.2 per cent this year

Outstanding credit forecast to grow 14.2 per cent this year, Outstanding credit is forecast to increase 14.2 per cent in 2024. (Photo: VNA)

Hanoi – Outstanding credit of the banking system is forecast to increase 4.4 per cent in the first quarter and 14.2 per cent in 2024, up 0.4 percentage point from the previous prediction of 13.8 per cent.

Capital mobilisation is expected to rise 2.6 per cent in Q1 and 12.1 per cent in the whole year, unchanged from the previously predicted figures, according to a survey of credit institutions’ business trend for Q1 conducted by the Forecasting and Statistics Department of the State Bank of Vietnam.

Meanwhile, the institutions believed the rate of non-performing loans among outstanding credit, which inched up in Q4 2023, will fall slightly in Q1 this year.

They forecast demand for banking services in Q1 will improve at a slower pace than in Q4 last year but bounce back more strongly during 2024. Notably, demand for loans will get much better than that for deposits or payments, different from what was seen in 2023.

The banking system’s liquidity was better than expectation in Q4 and abundant during last year compared to 2022. It is expected to stay in that state during Q1 this year and the entire 2024, they noted.

Deposit and lending interest rates are forecast to continue declining slightly, by an average of 0.3 - 0.4 percentage point in Q1 and 0.2 percentage point in 2024.

The latest survey also showed that the banking system’s business performance and pre-tax profits in last Q4 improved slightly from the previous quarter but were still lower than expected in the previous survey.

The institutions reported that their business performance fell short of expectation, and lowered pre-tax profit estimations from the previous survey. About 78.6 per cent of them estimated last year’s pre-tax profits would grow compared to 2022, 17.9 per cent forecast contraction, and 3.6 per cent unchanged.

They expressed their hope that the situation will improve starting from Q1 and this year, but pre-tax profits may recover at a slower pace.

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