World Bank forecasts Vietnam GDP growth of 6.3 per cent

According to the report, growth in the East Asia and Pacific (EAP) is projected to slow to 4.2 per cent in 2026 from 5 per cent in 2025, as the energy shock due to the Middle East conflict compounds the adverse impact of elevated trade barriers, global policy uncertainty, and domestic economic difficulties.

Growth in China, the region’s largest economy, is projected to decelerate from 5 per cent in 2025 to 4.2 per cent in 2026 and 4.3 per cent in 2027, as weak domestic demand and property sector challenges persist, and the global slowdown dampens export growth. Growth in the rest of the region will slow to 4.1 per cent in 2026 and is projected to rebound to 5 per cent in 2027 as geopolitical tensions ease and uncertainty diminishes. Amid the slowing regional growth, Vietnam is projected to grow 6.3 per cent in 2026 and 7.6 per cent in 2027.

“Growth in East Asia and Pacific continues to outperform much of the world, even in uncertain times,” said Carlos Felipe Jaramillo, vice president for East Asia and Pacific at World Bank. “Yet, sustaining growth levels requires countries to confront structural challenges and seize the opportunity of the digital age to increase productivity and create more jobs.”

The impact of the Middle East conflict depends on each country’s reliance on energy imports, existing vulnerabilities, and economic policy flexibility. Prolonged and intensified conflict may further increase economic distress and reduce regional growth.

A sustained 50 per cent increase in fuel prices could lead to a 3-4 per cent loss in income for households in the region. Targeted support–for both the poor and the vulnerable and the small and medium enterprises–can help those most in need without fiscal strain.

The report shows that economies with stronger buffers–including Cambodia, Indonesia, and Vietnam–have greater capacity to absorb the shock through strategic reserves, domestic refining capacity, or commodity export revenues that provide a natural hedge. Specifically, Vietnam’s fiscal space and domestic refining capacity help contain near‑term macro effects in the event of a short‑lived shock.

“The region’s past resilience is remarkable, but present difficulties could increase economic distress and inhibit productivity growth,” said Aaditya Mattoo, director of research at World Bank Group. “Measured support for people and firms could preserve jobs today, and reviving stalled structural reforms could unleash growth tomorrow.”

The report also identifies surging AI-related exports and investment as a bright spot in 2025, especially in Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam. AI could also lead to higher productivity growth, but adoption in EAP remains limited because of gaps in connectivity and skills. Only 13 to 17 per cent of multinational subsidiaries in China and Thailand currently use AI, which is one third of the proportion in industrial countries.

The report’s special focus shows how in specific circumstances industrial policy can help EAP economies boost growth and create more productive jobs. Targeted support for specific industries in South Korea, Malaysia and, more recently, Viet Nam worked because these countries had improved their economic foundations–infrastructure, education and regulatory institutions–and liberalised trade and investment.

Vietnam to lead trade growth in ASEAN Despite tariff headwinds, Vietnam remains among ASEAN’s top export growth performers, supporting expectations of robust gains in employment and wages.

Vietnam GDP projected to grow 7.4 per cent in 2026 The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office on April 6 released its annual flagship report, the ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook 2026, projecting Vietnam's GDP growth of 7.4 per cent in 2026.

Vietnam GDP posts second-strongest growth since 2011 Vietnam’s economy delivered one of its strongest growth performances in more than a decade last year, with momentum building steadily through the quarters and peaking at year-end.