Vietnam's economy grew an estimated 8.4 per cent in second quarter

The National Statistics Office (NSO) has just released the socioeconomic report on July 3, indicating GDP is estimated to have grown 8.39 per cent in the April–June period from a year earlier. GDP growth for the first half of the year is estimated at 8.18 per cent, higher than the 7.63 per cent recorded in the same period last year.

The industry, construction and services sectors continued to account for the largest share of the economy, providing the main impetus for growth.

Within the industry and construction sector, industrial production maintained strong momentum, supported by strengthened growth drivers, a recovery in export orders and positive spillover effects from public investment. Value added in the sector rose 9.86 per cent in the first six months from a year earlier, contributing 40.35 per cent of the economy's overall increase in value added.

The services sector, including trade and transport, also posted solid growth as stronger consumer demand boosted goods circulation and travel. Value added in the sector increased 8.09 per cent on-year.

Meanwhile, agriculture maintained stable growth as export markets for agricultural products continued to expand. Value added in the sector rose 3.57 per cent from the same period last year.

In the first half of the year, Vietnam is estimated to have recorded a trade deficit of $16.65 billion, reversing a trade surplus of $7.95 billion in the same period last year. Total merchandise trade reached $549.7 billion, with both exports and imports rising by 21–37.3 per cent on-year.

The US remained Vietnam's largest export market, with export turnover reaching $86.5 billion. China was Vietnam's largest source of imports, with import turnover totalling $115.2 billion during the six months.

The NSO also reported that around 169,800 enterprises were newly established or resumed operations in the first half of the year, equivalent to an average of 28,300 businesses per month. Meanwhile, approximately 151,100 enterprises suspended operations or exited the market, averaging 25,200 businesses each month.

A business sentiment survey covering the manufacturing and processing industry showed that 36.3 per cent of enterprises were optimistic about business conditions in the second quarter. The proportion expecting conditions to improve in the third quarter is forecast to rise to 39.4 per cent.

Average consumer price inflation (CPI) in the second quarter increased by 5.25 per cent on-year. For the first six months of 2025, average CPI rose 4.38 per cent from a year earlier, while core inflation increased 4.12 per cent.

Nguyen Thi Huong, director general of the NSO, said, "Despite continued global economic and political uncertainty, escalating armed conflicts, and other external risks, Vietnam's first-half growth performance has been positive. Macroeconomic fundamentals remained stable, inflation was kept under control, supplies of essential goods were secured, and both domestic consumption and tourism recorded healthy growth."

However, she warned that the economy is likely to face significant challenges in the second half of the year because of its high degree of openness and exposure to global economic and geopolitical developments. "Achieving double-digit growth for the full year remains a major challenge given the economy's high level of openness and vulnerability to external shocks," she said.

Huong recommended that policymakers manage fuel prices flexibly and avoid adjusting multiple state-administered prices simultaneously to help contain inflationary pressures. She also called for faster administrative reforms, quicker disbursement of public investment, stronger measures to stimulate domestic consumption, and further efforts to diversify and expand export markets.

World Bank projects Vietnam’s growth to moderate to 6.8 per cent in 2026 While headwinds are expected to temper the pace of expansion, World Bank's latest Vietnam Economic Update, released on May 15, projects growth will moderate to a 6.8 per cent in 2026, following an 8 per cent expansion in 2025.

OECD projects GDP growth of 6.5 per cent for Vietnam this year Vietnam's GDP is projected to grow by 6.5 per cent in 2026 and 6.2 per cent in 2027, a slowdown amid uncertainty from the Middle East conflict and US trade policy, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development has said.

UOB sees resilience amid cost pressures and external strains According to a June 12 report by UOB (United Overseas Bank), recent data paint a mixed near-term picture, with higher energy costs dampening momentum.