ASEAN could scale up sustainable aviation fuel by 2050

ASEAN economies could generate up to 8.5 million barrels per day of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) by 2050, according to the ASEAN SAF 2050 Outlook report released on January 23. The report assesses regional supply chains and demand scenarios for 2030, 2040, and 2050 across Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam, as well as key import markets including Japan, Singapore, and South Korea.

The report was developed by GHD Group, a global professional services company specialising in water, energy, environment, property, and transport, with financial support from Global Affairs Canada through the Canadian Trade and Investment Facility for Development, implemented by Cowater International, with Boeing as the knowledge partner and support from the ASEAN Secretariat.

SAF is a renewable or waste-derived aviation fuel that meets sustainability criteria, reduces greenhouse gas emissions, and is compatible with existing aircraft and infrastructure. ASEAN’s key SAF feedstocks include used cooking oil, rice waste, cassava waste, and forestry residues.

The countries examined within the report could potentially have capacity to position themselves as net SAF exporters. Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand have the most abundant feedstock to support SAF production, while Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines, may have the most cost-efficient distribution for markets in Japan, Singapore, and South Korea.

In addition to exporting SAF, ASEAN is predicted to become a significant market for SAF in its own right. The report projects that SAF demand in ASEAN will grow sharply from 15,000 barrels per day in 2030 to over 700,000 barrels per day by 2050. The largest SAF demands are expected to come from Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand, as well as other Asian economies such as Japan and South Korea.

The report also examined different ways of producing SAF. Hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA) is the most prevalent technology for producing SAF today, costing about twice as much as jet fuel, with the largest cost contributor being feedstock. Alternative methods could be between four and seven times more expensive, but this gap is expected to reduce as technologies mature and scale up.

Satvinder Singh, Deputy Secretary-General for the ASEAN Economic Community, said the outlook confirms ASEAN’s strong supply-side advantage, particularly in sustainable bio-feedstocks, alongside rising regional and global demand for sustainable aviation fuel.

“To fully capitalise on these dynamics, ASEAN member states should work together to scale up production capacity, deploy cost-effective technologies, and establish robust regional trade and market frameworks,” he said, adding that this would help position ASEAN as a competitive and reliable supplier supporting aviation decarbonisation across the Asia-Pacific.

Sharmine Tan, Boeing’s regional sustainability lead for Southeast Asia, said the region’s aviation industry is expanding rapidly and will need increased supplies of sustainable aviation fuel alongside more fuel-efficient aircraft. “The ASEAN 2050 SAF Outlook shows the region’s strong potential to increase SAF production with the right policies, partnerships, and investments,” she said.

Sachin Narang, GHD’s executive advisor for energy and infrastructure, said ASEAN’s abundance of agricultural and forestry waste could serve as low-cost feedstock for SAF, helping narrow the gap with conventional jet fuel. “Policy intervention, scaling, and innovation can further reduce costs for alternative SAF pathways over the medium to long term,” he said.

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