Vietnam’s GDP grows over 9 per cent in first nine months

Twelve of the country's 34 provinces and cities recorded regional GDP growth of at least 10 per cent, led by Quang Ninh, Ha Tinh, and Haiphong.

The National Statistics Office (NSO) held a press conference on October 3 to announce the socioeconomic statistics for the third quarter and the first nine months. According to a report presented by NSO director general Nguyen Thi Huong, Vietnam's performance continued to deliver positive results across most sectors despite persistent global economic uncertainties.

Vietnam's economic growth in the first nine months. Data source: NSO

Vietnam’s GDP is estimated to have expanded by 9.95 per cent on-year in the third quarter of 2026, accelerating from 8.15 per cent in the first quarter and 8.81 per cent in the second quarter. Agriculture, forestry, and fisheries grew by 4.21 per cent, while industry and construction expanded by 12.5 per cent, and services by 9.54 per cent.

For the first nine months, GDP growth reached an estimated 9.01 per cent. Agriculture, forestry, and fisheries grew by 4.02 per cent, contributing 5.35 per cent to the increase in the economy’s total gross value added. Industry and construction expanded by 11.21 per cent, contributing 49.62 per cent, while services grew by 8.69 per cent, accounting for 45.03 per cent.

Twelve of Vietnam’s 34 cities and provinces recorded regional GDP growth of at least 10 per cent. Quang Ninh led with 12.54 per cent, followed by Ha Tinh at 12.36 per cent, Haiphong at 12.08 per cent, Bac Ninh at 11.81 per cent, and Ninh Binh at 11.3 per cent.

Industrial growth remained robust, supported by expanding growth drivers, the operation of several large-scale projects, a recovery in export orders, and faster public investment disbursement, which generated spillover effects across manufacturing and construction.

Industrial gross value added rose by 11.02 per cent in the first nine months. Manufacturing and processing remained the main growth driver, expanding by 11.36 per cent and contributing 33.85 per cent to the increase in the economy’s total gross value added. Construction grew by 12.22 per cent, contributing 8.23 per cent.

The industrial production index is estimated to have increased by 14.8 per cent on-year in the third quarter. For the first nine months, the index rose by 12.3 per cent, the strongest nine-month increase since 2019. Manufacturing and processing grew by 12.9 per cent, electricity production and distribution by 10.6 per cent, and mining by 8 per cent.

The consumption index for the manufacturing and processing sector increased by 12.8 per cent over the nine-month period. Meanwhile, inventories in the sector as of September 30 were 11.9 per cent higher than a year earlier.

Within the services sector, transport and warehousing grew by 11.03 per cent on-year in the first nine months, followed by wholesale and retail trade at 9.85 per cent, financial, banking, and insurance activities at 9.45 per cent, and accommodation and food services at 8.83 per cent.

Total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue at current prices were estimated at more than VND2 quadrillion ($80 billion) in the third quarter, up 14.5 per cent on-year. The figure reached almost VND6 quadrillion ($235 billion) in the first nine months, an increase of 13.4 per cent. Excluding price factors, growth stood at 7.8 per cent.

International arrivals reached an estimated 5.4 million in the third quarter, up 13.8 per cent on-year. The total for the first nine months was 17.7 million, an increase of 14.5 per cent.

Goods exports reached $167.85 billion in the third quarter, up 30.4 per cent on-year, while imports rose by 42.2 per cent to $170.33 billion.

For the first nine months, total goods trade reached $888.02 billion, up 30.4 per cent on-year. Exports increased by 24.5 per cent to $434.30 billion, while imports rose by 36.7 per cent to $453.72 billion.

Domestic enterprises accounted for $83.89 billion, or 19.3 per cent, of total exports, up 7.5 per cent on-year. Foreign-invested enterprises, including crude oil, generated $350.41 billion, up 29.4 per cent and accounting for the remaining 80.7 per cent.

Processed industrial products made up 90.4 per cent of total export value, while production materials accounted for 94.1 per cent of imports. The United States remained Vietnam’s largest export market, with shipments worth $140 billion, while China was the largest import source, with imports totalling $187.34 billion.

Vietnam recorded a goods trade surplus of $1.27 billion in September. However, the country posted a trade deficit of $19.42 billion for the first nine months, compared with a surplus of $16.87 billion in the same period last year. The services trade deficit reached $8.21 billion.

Total social investment at current prices was estimated at VND3.1 quadrillion ($121 billion) in the first nine months of 2026, up 15.1 per cent on-year, compared with growth of 11.6 per cent in the same period of 2025.

According to the NSO, the increase reflected the impact of macroeconomic management policies, efforts to accelerate public investment projects, and sustained confidence among domestic private businesses and foreign investors.

Investment by the state sector reached VND931 trillion ($36.5 billion), up 17.3 per cent. The non-state sector invested VND1.65 quadrillion ($64.5 billion), an increase of 14 per cent, while investment by foreign direct investment (FDI) enterprises totalled VND529.4 trillion ($20.5 billion), up 14.5 per cent.

Total registered foreign investment in Vietnam reached $50.36 billion as of September 30, up 76.4 per cent on-year. Disbursed FDI was estimated at $21.07 billion in the first nine months, an increase of 12.1 per cent and the highest nine-month figure since 2022.

The consumer price index (CPI) rose by an average of 4.8 per cent on-year in the third quarter. For the first nine months, average CPI inflation stood at 4.52 per cent, while core inflation reached 4.26 per cent.

NSO director general Nguyen Thi Huong said, "Nine-month GDP growth of 9.01 per cent was exceptionally high by historical standards and provided an important foundation for achieving the highest possible growth rate under the country's targets. However, achieving double-digit economic growth would remain a major challenge."

The NSO called for continued efforts to prioritise growth while maintaining macroeconomic stability, ensuring major economic balances, controlling inflation and prices, and stabilising markets.

ADB maintains Vietnam's growth outlook amid Southeast Asia downgrades

Economy needs 11.9 per cent growth in H2 to achieve 10 per cent GDP target for 2026

Citi raises Vietnam’s 2026 GDP forecast to 8 per cent