Dubai seeks investment to bolster flagging economy

With the highest building in the world, Burj Khalifa (left), grand commercial centres and artificial islands, Dubai projects an image of prosperity AFP/KARIM SAHIB

Despite boasting the most diverse economy in the Gulf region, the emirate's vital property, tourism and trade sectors have weakened in recent years.

Real estate deals plunged 21.5 per cent to US$60.7 billion in 2018, according to government data, while the number of tourists visiting Dubai remained stagnant at around 16 million in the past two years.

"Dubai's economic growth has been lacklustre ... following a weak real estate market and subdued consumer spending," M.R. Raghu, head of research at Kuwait Financial Centre (Markaz), told AFP.

The emirate's economy grew by just 1.94 per cent last year -- almost half of its 2017 growth and just a notch above the 1.9 per cent in 2010, when Dubai was still recovering from a recession due to the global financial crisis and its own debt problems.

INCENTIVE MEASURES

But Raed Safadi, chief economic advisor to Dubai Economy, the government agency responsible for promoting development, downplayed reports about the slowdown.

"We are still growing. Yes, it is not at 4.5 per cent - the average between 2012 and 2016 - but given all the conditions around the world, it is healthy," Safadi told AFP.

He expects growth to pick up to 2.1 per cent in 2019 and rebound to as high as 3.8 per cent next year.

This prediction relies heavily on the Expo 2020 global trade fair that Dubai hopes will deliver an economic windfall and some 300,000 new jobs.

Safadi said Expo 2020 is expected to add some US$35 billion to the economy over the subsequent decade.

But with the region's most open market, Dubai is exposed to global trade tensions, regional slowdown and the economic downturn in Iran under tough US sanctions, according to the London-based Capital Economics.

"All of this will weigh on Dubai?s key logistics, tourism and manufacturing sectors," said James Swanston, an economist at Capital Economics.

To preserve Dubai's image as an economic hub, the city-state has implemented a raft of incentives.

Months ago, the government started granting permanent residencies to big investors and allowed foreigners to have full ownership of businesses throughout the emirate, including outside free zones.

Authorities also began offering long-term visas for foreign investors, students and talent, while revising fees on hundreds of services, freezing school fees and setting up a high-level committee to rebalance the property market.

With a population of 3.3 million - over 90 per cent of them expats - Dubai draws 70 per cent of its revenue from fees on various transactions and around 24 per cent from taxes and government company profits.

Just 6 per cent of its revenue comes from oil.

PUBLIC DEBT

Fahad al-Gergawi, CEO of Dubai Foreign Direct Investment, a public body, said reports of the downturn were exaggerated.

"The economic slowdown is not new to Dubai ... but certain media reports highlight particular issues to show that Dubai is struggling," he told AFP on the sidelines of Dubai Investment Week held last week.

"We have passed through similar economic cycles in the past."

Gergawi said Dubai has been among the top 10 cities in the world for attracting new investment in the past five years and among the top three cities for Foreign Direct Investment.

The government announced on Sunday that in the first half of 2019, the emirate received US$12.7 billion in FDI, an increase of 135 per cent from the same period last year, surpassing even the US$10.5 billion it received in 2018.

"In the medium term, spending related to hosting Dubai Expo 2020 and monetary easing measures would support growth. Furthermore, Dubai has been actively undertaking reform measures to boost the economy," Raghu said.

But Dubai, one of seven Sheikhdoms that make up the United Arab Emirates, still faces high public debt of around US$123 billion, or 110 per cent of GDP, divided almost equally between the government and state-linked companies.

About two-thirds of the debt of state-linked companies will mature by the end of 2023.

But Swanston said a "total debt default" is unlikely as oil-rich Abu Dhabi, the wealthiest emirate in the federation, "would come to the rescue" as it did when Dubai defaulted on its debt in 2009.