FMCG resilience amid varying storms

Alongside investment and exports, domestic consumption is a central pillar for Vietnam to achieve its 10 per cent annual growth target through the 2026–2030 period.

Jane Ha, global senior marketing manager WorldPanel by Numerator

To unlock this growth, it is essential to examine the nuances of the primary force driving the domestic market: the Vietnamese consumer. This understanding will enable brands, manufacturers, and retailers to align their strategies more effectively to meet and stimulate consumer demand over the mid-term.

The fluctuating consumer sentiment observed throughout 2025 showed Vietnamese consumers exhibit a quick-pulse mindset. Bombarded by a relentless news cycle, shoppers’ confidence responds to immediate signals but possess a cautious mindset, ready to recalibrate as new information emerges.

Vietnamese consumers’ spending will largely hinge on their financial state of mind. At the end of 2025, Worldpanel by Numerator’s Consumer Confidence survey data showed that a significantly larger share of urban Vietnamese households expected their financial situation to remain stable rather than improve over the coming year.

While the average income continued to improve at a 7 per cent growth rate between 2020 and 2025, purchasing power has become more deliberate, with consumers deploying a more selective spending strategy.

Beyond short-term sentiment, the structural shifts in who the Vietnamese consumer is and how households are formed are reshaping demand patterns and redefining where fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) growth will be generated in the years ahead.

The rise of smaller households

One of the most gradual yet profound shifts in the fabric of the modern Vietnamese society is the downsizing of the Vietnamese household. As urbanisation accelerates, the traditional multi-generational home is giving way to a sizeable population of nuclear and single-person households, both in urban and rural areas.

How the walls of the Vietnamese home structure are shifting is reshaping how FMCG goods move off the shelves in the years to come. With fewer mouths to feed, smaller households are spending more on FMCG per member than the extended families.

These smaller units may be buying less, but they are buying better – willing to spend premium on categories and offerings that aid a convenient lifestyle, or investment on themselves.

Much of the spotlight remains on younger consumers, yet the growing influence of Vietnam’s silver population is often overlooked. Adults aged 65 and above, expanding at a 5 per cent compound annual growth rate between 2015 and 2025, are projected to account for more than 14 per cent of the total population by 2036.

As Vietnam approaches this demographic tipping point, senior consumers are emerging as a strategic FMCG battleground, defined by their increasing longevity, accumulated wealth, and significant spending power.

Vietnamese life expectancy has extended significantly over the past two decades; however, senior and younger generations are carrying more diseases in average. This transition creates a surge in demand for specialised nutrition and health-forward offerings that prioritise preventive wellness and active ageing.

To engage this expanding demographic effectively, it is essential to develop a granular understanding of “silver” shoppers. Capturing the regional variations in education, income, occupation, and lifestyle habits, brands can more effectively resonate with the diverse needs and growing influence of this cohort.

With the recent restructuring of provinces and the move towards a streamlined two-level government, the consumer map of Vietnam has been redrawn. We are no longer looking at 63 provinces, but at massive and more consolidated regional hubs.

This restructuring has created a new portrait of the consumer: one who is more urbanised, more digitally integrated, and more demanding of efficiency in distribution. For brands, the mission in 2026 is no longer just having coverage – it is about winning these new mega-regions where income, education, and occupation are converging at an unprecedented pace.

One of the most prominent trends observed in Worldpanel Vietnam’s last year household purchase data is an in-home volume contraction across several core FMCG sectors over consecutive quarters. On the surface, this might look like a decline in demand. However, a deeper and holistic dive reveals a more nuanced reality: consumers are not necessarily consuming less; they are reallocating their share of the wallet.

Last year saw a massive pivot towards services and entertainment industries, stimulated by national tourism drives and major cultural events, households are prioritising making memories and spending more time out of home.

The in-home FMCG market in 2025 was almost evenly split, with 49 per cent of categories experiencing an uptrade in consumer choice, while 51 per cent saw a shift towards downtrading. This volume cut across various sectors is not necessarily a sign of disappearing demand, but rather a clear signal of its evolution.

The new value equation

In the face of persistent living cost pressures and concerns over counterfeit goods and product quality, consumer priorities have changed.

Price still remains important, but Vietnamese consumers are now demanding more from brands. Rising costs and heightened concerns about product quality are driving shoppers to seek maximum information and value-add from brands – from transparent origins and tangible benefits to guaranteed quality.

In an environment where consumers are cautious, building trust is paramount. This goes beyond price and quality. Consumers are looking for brands that are transparent, reliable, and offer genuine value.

As we look forward to the strategic period of 2026-2030, the Vietnamese consumer market is reaching a pivotal consolidation moment. For brands and manufacturers, the landscape is no longer about riding the storm – it is about leading the new wave of domestic-led growth.

The most significant tailwind for the period is the government’s commitment to stimulate domestic demand through substantial fiscal support. The extension of 2 per cent VAT reductions on logistics and information and communication technology, the removal of public school tuition fees, and personal income tax adjustments are aimed to reinforce consumption confidence.

While the macro numbers look bright, success in FMCG will depend on how well brands align with a more discerning and sophisticated Vietnamese consumer.

By integrating health benefits, transparent quality, and frictionless experience into offerings, brands can transform daily consumption moments into meaningful and valuable lifestyle investments. Stimulating this domestic pillar ultimately depends on delivering verified value and seamless experiences that resonate with the shifting demographics of the modern Vietnamese household.

This requires agile innovation – the ability to launch products that aren’t just new, but are true to the consumer’s need for health, value, and reliability.