AMRO forecasts 7.6 per cent GDP growth for Vietnam in 2026

Vietnam’s GDP growth is forecast to reach 7.6 per cent in 2026, according to a quarterly update released on January 21 by the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO). ASEAN+3 comprises the 10 ASEAN member states together with China, Japan, and South Korea, and the bloc’s overall growth is projected to moderate to 4 per cent in 2026.

The growth updates reflect upward revisions of 0.2 percentage points for both years compared with the October 2025 update. The region’s solid performance last year was underpinned by less severe tariff outcomes than initially expected, resilient technology export growth, strong investment in ASEAN, and accommodative macroeconomic policies.

"The ASEAN+3 region has demonstrated notable resilience, navigating global uncertainties more effectively than anticipated," said AMRO chief economist Dong He. "Strong technology demand and robust foreign direct investment inflows into emerging sectors, including advanced electronics, electric vehicles, and digital services, have helped cushion growth despite ongoing tariff headwinds."

Vietnam remains a bright spot in the region, with GDP growth of 8.02 per cent in 2025. International organisations have issued more positive growth projections for Vietnam this year, reflecting the country’s robust fundamentals and resilience amid global uncertainties.

Specifically, Standard Chartered predicts Vietnam’s GDP growth at around 7.2 per cent in 2026. GDP growth is projected at approximately 6.5 per cent in the first half and is expected to accelerate to around 8 per cent in the latter half, lifting full-year growth to 7.2 per cent.

Likewise, the World Bank predicts Vietnam's GDP growth at 6.3 per cent in 2026 and 6.7 per cent in 2027 in its January 2026 edition of its Global Economic Prospects. The growth projections for Vietnam are 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points above the forecasts in the June 2025 edition of the report.

UOB lifts Vietnam growth outlook to 7.5 per cent for 2026 Vietnam has entered 2026 with solid economic momentum, supported by strong growth last year and a more upbeat outlook from regional economists.

HSBC forecasts Vietnam's GDP growth to hit 6.7 per cent in 2026 HSBC has said it expects Vietnam's GDP growth to hit 6.7 per cent this year, down from an 8 per cent expansion last year.

Three key dynamics supporting Vietnam’s GDP growth in 2026 The three key dynamics to drive 2026 GDP growth include a modest consumption recovery, the infrastructure-real estate growth nexus, and resilient exports to the US, according to a report by VinaCapital published on January 19.