Scenarios for seaport development in south in H2/2021

Scenarios for the seaport development in the south in H2 2021

Vietnam's import and export activities have been growing in the past seven months as a number of free trade agreements have come into force. However, since the fourth wave of the pandemic, port activities have been disrupted by movement restrictions.

Many factories have had to scale down or halt production, creating backlogs of containers at various ports. In this context, Saigon Newport Corporationhas laid out three scenarios for seaports in the south.

In the first scenario, the COVID-19 pandemic would be brought under control by the end of the third quarter of 2021 with vaccination on a large scale and businesses starting to resume operation. This will increase the volume of freight cargo passing through Ho Chi Minh City's seaports by 5-7 per cent and 12-15 per cent through seaport in the Cai Mep area in the second half. In this scenario, shipping lines would actively move goods from Ho Chi Minh City to overseas to ensure the import and export needs of businesses.

In the second scenario, the pandemic would be contained at the beginning of Q4. Freight cargo volume through ports in Ho Chi Minh City would increase by 3-5 per cent and 15-17 per cent in the Cai Mep area. Shipping lines and businesses would increase goods transport to Cai Mep as Ho Chi Minh City will begin collecting port infrastructure charges in October.

The third scenario is that the pandemic would be brought under control by the middle of Q4. Businesses would gradually resume production in the last months of the year with slower recovery due to the long-term effects of social distancing. Freight cargo volume passing through the seaports of Ho Chi Minh City and Cai Mep would be equivalent to the first traffic seen in H1.

In H1/2021, the throughput of goods through Ho Chi Minh City's seaports reached about 3.8 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) and more than 2.6 million TEUs in the Cai Mep area.