MPI highlights two GDP growth scenarios for H2

Minister of Planning and Investment Nguyen Chi Dung updates two GDP growth scenarios for the second half of the year

According to Minister of Planning and Investment Nguyen Chi Dung, GDP growth in the second quarter increased by 4.14 per cent, and in the first half of the year by 3.72 per cent. Forecasting the situation in the second half of the year, the MPI updated two growth scenarios for the last six months.

Scenario 1 sees GDP for the whole year expected to increase by 6 per cent, the growth in the third quarter must reach 6.8 per cent, and the fourth quarter is 9 per cent, 0.3 and 1.9 percentage points respectively higher than the scenario given at the beginning of the year. In this scenario, in the second half, GDP growth must reach 8 per cent.

In the second scenario 2, GDP in 2023 will increase by 6.5 per cent. Therefore, the last two quarters of the year must achieve growth of 7.4 and 10.3 per cent. In general, growth in the second half of the year has to be at 8.9 per cent.

"Reaching the growth rate of 6.5 per cent for the whole year is a big challenge," said the minister.

Many tasks and solutions are proposed by the MPI. Thereby, ministries and localities should remove obstacles in production and doing business, promote the growth drivers of domestic consumption, and investment (including the private sector, state-owned enterprises, attracting foreign investment and public investment), and export activities.

The stock markets, real estate, corporate bonds, and labour markets must be closely monitored, and problems should be dealt with to become an effective medium and long-term capital mobilisation channel for enterprises.

The MPI highlighted speeding up the reform of administrative procedures, and improving the business investment environment in association with accelerated decentralisation, creating maximum convenience for people and businesses.

Previously, a number of international organisations have lowered the growth forecasts for Vietnam this year, but still at a positive level. For example, the International Monetary Fund lowered its forecast for Vietnam's GDP growth this year from 5.8 to 4.7 per cent in a report released at the end of June.

In the first half of the year, the MPI said that economic indicators in June were much better than in May, and the second quarter better than the first.

The consumer price index (CPI) in the first half rose by 3.39 per cent on-year, and is on a downtrend.

The trade surplus was $12.2 billion. New-registered foreign investment and disbursed capital reported positive signs. Public investment disbursement was more than $2.7 billion, equivalent to 30.5 per cent of the yearly plan.

Business registration saw 13,900 enterprises registering for new establishment in June; and nearly 7,100 enterprises returning to operation, over three times higher than the same period last year.

After the meeting, the government will issue the resolution on removing difficulties for production and business, continuing to promote administrative procedure reform, and tightening discipline.

ADB sets moderate 2023 growth outlook for Vietnam After a strong performance last year, the Vietnamese economy can expect moderate growth of 6.5 per cent this year, followed by a slight improvement to 6.8 per cent in 2024, according to a recent economic publication from the Asian Development Bank (ADB).

OECD forecasts Vietnam's GDP growth at 6.5 per cent The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) expects Vietnam's economy to grow steadily, with GDP at 6.5 per cent in 2023 and 6.6 per cent in 2024.

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