Agency of Foreign Trade warns of trade disruption due to Middle East conflict

Authorities issued a cautionary notice to help export-import and logistics businesses stay prepared amid evolving global developments. Photo: Le Toan

Official Dispatch No. 229/XNK-TLH, dated March 1, 2026, states that on February 28 marked a serious escalation of tensions in the Middle East and created “serious instability” and posed high risks to transportation activities, international trade and global supply chains.

The agency warned that prices of consumer goods, fuel, and global oil are forecast to rise, generating “indirect and multi-dimensional negative impacts” on Vietnam’s production and export-import activities, as well as on trade with the Middle East.

For logistics services, rising fuel costs are expected to push up sea freight and air cargo rates, particularly on routes connecting Vietnam with countries in the region.

According to the dispatch, several Middle Eastern countries have restricted or closed their airspace due to security concerns, forcing passenger and cargo flights to reroute, prolonging flight times and increasing logistics costs.

Maritime transport has also been significantly affected, as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has nearly stalled following airstrikes. Iran has warned that passage through the strait is currently unsafe, compelling shipping lines to avoid the area or alter routes, thereby extending transit times and raising fuel expenses.

“Before the above situation, the Agency of Foreign Trade requests export-import industry associations and logistics associations to closely monitor developments,” it said.

Associations are asked to regularly coordinate with relevant state management authorities to provide updates to member enterprises, enabling them to adjust production plans, export-import arrangements, and transport operations.

The agency emphasised the need to “avoid disruptions and minimise negative impacts” from the conflict, while improving flexibility and resilience against fluctuations in the international business environment.

In addition, associations and enterprises are urged to “regularly and proactively analyse and coordinate information” with ministries and relevant agencies regarding trade data, domestic policy changes affecting business operations, cargo flows, freight rates, and surcharges, to prepare appropriate response scenarios for similar situations in the future.

They are also advised to develop preventive and adaptive plans to mitigate risks, losses, and disruptions in international trade and transport activities, and to prepare timely response measures to limit impacts on supply chains.

The dispatch further encourages frequent engagement with relevant MoIT units, including trade promotion and overseas trade offices, to identify new orders and potential markets, thereby formulating alternative or prioritised exploitation plans to “maximise opportunities”.

The agency said that close coordination among associations, enterprises, and authorities would be essential to strengthening resilience and safeguarding Vietnam’s export-import activities amid growing geopolitical uncertainty.