Market signals point to new openings for investment

What is your assessment of the bright spots of Vietnam’s economy in 2024?

GDP growth is projected to reach 6.8-7 per cent, surpassing the government’s initial expectations, marking a positive return for the economy. This recovery is also driven by balanced growth across various sectors, with services, industry, and construction continuing to develop, while public investment is strongly boosted to improve infrastructure.

One of the key factors contributing to this recovery is the economic stimulus policies and government funding programmes. The private sector and foreign investment have been active, helping increase trade flows, making significant contributions to growth.

However, in the context of the global economy recovering slowly, Vietnam still faces challenges regarding labour productivity and product quality, which requires long-term strategies to strengthen internal capabilities.

Dang Thuy Ha, director of Consumer & Marketing Insights at NielsenIQ Vietnam

How has the economic context impacted trends and behaviour this year?

According to the quarterly Personal Finance Monitor report by NielsenIQ, which studies investor behaviour in banking and finance, there is a growing demand for gold and stocks. While stocks remain an open field with many attractive opportunities, attracting both retail and less experienced investors, the demand for gold is also significant, accounting for more than 20 per cent, primarily in the south.

Digital assets have also become a popular area, especially among Gen Y and Gen Z. Vietnam is currently second in the world for the proportion of people holding digital assets, with around 20 million people owning digital assets. Every year, approximately $120 billion worth of cryptocurrency is invested in Vietnam.

Consumer credit growth has also increased, with around 20 per cent of those who are unable to access traditional bank credit now able to use alternative credit forms. However, despite the gradual recovery of the economy following a downturn, people are still cautious and more careful when making decisions.

NielsenIQ’s Q3/2024 survey shows that 42 per cent are still concerned about their personal finances for the coming year, and 61 per cent prefer saving to investing, compared to 54 per cent at the same time last year.

Thus, maintaining and developing in this market requires businesses to be well-prepared, with thorough analysis of various aspects of their industry and sector. However, opportunities will always be available to businesses that can grasp trends and continuously innovate.

Based on consumer behaviour in 2024, what is your prediction for the economic outlook in 2025?

We have regularly assessed the pressures on consumers, including economic and financial factors, their actual daily spending levels, and their enjoyment of life.

Regarding financial conditions, our research shows that 67 per cent of respondents reported an improvement in their personal financial situation, with consistent growth over the past four consecutive quarters. Compared to a year ago, this figure has increased by over 17 per cent, indicating rising incomes for Vietnamese consumers.

Despite confidence in the economy’s recovery, the majority of Vietnamese people are still proactively managing their spending and prioritising savings. 83 per cent of respondents admitted that saving has become a habit, 75 per cent said they never let their money run out, and 69 per cent were aware of price increases for essential goods.

In Q3 and Q4, consumption levels also increased, indicating that consumer confidence in the economy is also rising. By the end of September, we measured a 1.3 per cent growth in fast-moving consumer goods. The 2024 NielsenIQ Food Insights report also indicated that people have started eating out more, and the rate of ordering food delivery has increased.

Based on the observed behaviours of customers in 2024 and the positive trends in exports, imports, and overseas funding, NielsenIQ has made three forecasts, corresponding to consumer assessments of economic growth prospects for 2025. Around 35 per cent of respondents believe the economy will grow by more than 6.5 per cent, 45 per cent have confidence in growth rates between 5.5 per cent and 6.5 per cent, and about 20 per cent remain less optimistic, predicting growth of less than 5.5 per cent.

These figures suggest that consumers are confident in the recovery, and the economic outlook for 2025 is expected to show promising developments.