2024 growth prospects through expert lens

Le Trung Hieu

2023 was a tough year for both the global and regional economy. Yet, Vietnam has overcome the challenges fairly impressively. What’s your take on this?

On a regional scale, the Asian Development Outlook report released by the Asian Development Bank in December forecast that the 2023 growth projections for Indonesia, the Philippines, and Singapore would be 5 per cent, 5.7 per cent, and 1 per cent, respectively, with Malaysia reaching 4.2 per cent, and Thailand 2.5 per cent.

In that context, Vietnam’s GDP growth of 5.05 per cent is deemed fairly high.

The agriculture, forestry, and fishery sector continued to be the fulcrum of the local economy. This sector has been proactive in restructuring to ensure supply sources and food security. At the same time, it has seen many impressive results and witnessed stable growth over the past year.

Meanwhile, the industrial sector eyed a rebound in the latter months of 2023, particularly in Q4, when the processing and manufacturing industry expanded by 7.9 per cent.

The construction industry saw outstanding growth amidst accelerated public investment. The price of several key materials, such as iron, steel, and cement, has now softened after a long time.

Other bright points are the low lending rates and the strong figures for committed foreign direct investment.

Finally, several services branches have continued to manage stable growth since the outset of the year, with retail and wholesale, motorised vehicles, and auto repairs climbing by 9.88 per cent, warehousing and transportation increasing by 9.97 per cent, and food and beverages and accommodation surging by 8.85 per cent.

The whole nation will embark on expediting 2024's socioeconomic development plans. What are your expectations for Vietnam’s economy this year?

In 2024, the potential risks from the global situation are forecast to continue to have a negative impact on Vietnam's economic growth. Inflation in some major economies is likely to remain high, and public debt continues to increase.

Global trade growth is still low, influenced by the tense and unpredictable geopolitical conflicts. Sharp fluctuations in crude oil and food prices and prolonged interest rate increases in many countries pose growing pressure, making the rebound prospects of the global economy unclear.

In the domestic market, opportunities and challenges are intertwined. The traditional driving forces are still weak, and the new ones are unclear, so Vietnam's economy is likely to continue facing multiple difficulties in 2024.

The GDP in 2023 saw steady increases on-quarter. Is Vietnam in a position to reach its growth target of 6-6.5 per cent in 2024?

Despite facing myriad issues, Vietnam's economy still has room to reboot more positively this year if support policies in 2023 have a clearer impact on the economy. The driving forces of investment, consumption, tourism, and exports continue to be strongly promoted, and long-standing shortcomings are being resolved.

The National Assembly has set a GDP growth target of 6-6.5 per cent this year. Given the aforementioned challenges, both locally and around the world, this will be a huge challenge.

2024 is also deemed the breakthrough year of the five-year economic journey for 2021-2025. The whole nation will therefore devote all its efforts to this. This brings advantages, but also adds great pressure. In such an uncertain global context, Vietnam needs to continue to maintain macroeconomic stability, as that is an important foundation to achieve the set growth target.

E-commerce’s bumper plans for 2024 The rapid growth rate of e-commerce has made Vietnam a potential destination for international platforms.

The 2024 vision for digital application, digital productivity, and digital growth Vietnam’s digital technology industry has made encouraging steps of development and maturity over the years.

2024 an optimistic year for tourism & hospitality Vietnamese tourism has exceeded the goals set for 2023, with the number of international tourists in 2023 reaching over 12 million, equivalent to 70 per cent of pre-pandemic levels in 2019.