Vietnam’s growth resilient amid global challenges

The Asian Development Outlook April 2026, Asian Development Bank (ADB)’s flagship annual economic publication, maintains a positive outlook for Vietnam over the near term. Strong exports ahead of the US reciprocal tariff adjustments, expansionary policies, and sustained investment supported the country’s solid economic growth last year. However, evolving US trade measures, conflict in the Middle East, and broader global uncertainties could curb exports and investment inflows.

“The Vietnamese government responded swiftly to the energy supply disruptions triggered by the conflict in the Middle East,” said ADB country director for Vietnam Shantanu Chakraborty.

“Time-bound fiscal measures, including tax relief, use of the stabilisation fund, combined with flexible price adjustments and stronger supply coordination, have helped contain near-term inflationary pressures and support growth. Over the longer term, improving efficiency, diversifying energy sources, and accelerating the transition to clean energy will be critical to reducing vulnerability to future shocks.”

Downside risks remain significant. A prolonged conflict in the Middle East could disrupt flows of oil, gas and fertilisers through the Strait of Hormuz, raising shipping costs and causing delays. Together with the war in Ukraine, these developments are intensifying commodity price volatility and further straining global supply chains. Weaker growth in key trading partners could also narrow Vietnam’s trade surplus and dampen growth.

From a policy perspective, strengthening Vietnam’s corporate bond market will be essential to mobilise long-term financing beyond bank credit and support sustained investment. Enhancing transparency, ensuring consistent regulations, and broadening market participation will be key to improving investor confidence and enhancing market efficiency. If implemented effectively, ongoing reforms in this area can help position the corporate bond market as a stable source of long-term finance for sustainable and inclusive growth.

Vietnamese government sets ambitious growth and income targets for 2026 The government is targeting strong economic momentum in the medium term, with plans to accelerate growth and improve income levels as part of its post-pandemic development strategy.

Double-digit GDP growth within reach with shift to higher-value expansion Vietnam has a credible basis to pursue double-digit GDP growth, but sustaining that pace will hinge on rethinking the drivers of expansion. Hoang Van Cuong, a member of the PM Policy Advisory Council, assesses the export model, reliance on foreign investment, and the shift needed towards higher value-added growth.

Vietnam GDP projected to grow 7.4 per cent in 2026 The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office on April 6 released its annual flagship report, the ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook 2026, projecting Vietnam's GDP growth of 7.4 per cent in 2026.