The national economy has shown more signs of recovery as retail sales, industrial production, and investments in manufacturing pick up.
The information was shared at the Vietnam Economic Outlook Seminar themed Prospects for Recovery Amidst a Dynamic Global Outlook organised by Citi on November 15 in Ho Chi Minh City.
This session provided Citi’s corporate clients with updated insights into the economic and investment trends shaping the country's economy.
Citi's economist Helmi Arman gave a key presentation at the event, reaffirming that industrial production has started rebounding in both export-oriented industries, such as electronics, textiles, and footwear, and domestically focussed industries, including metals and cement.
He noted that the most substantial shocks to both domestic and international demand seem to have been diminished. Industrial output and investments into manufacturing are on an upward trajectory, laying the foundation for recovery.
Vietnam’s exports received a helping hand from China after its border reopening and the resulting recovery in retail sales. However, textile and footwear exports to the US are still below last year’s peaks.
Vietnam's pre-COVID tourism revenue accounted for 3.6 per cent of GDP, yet monthly arrivals in October were 69 per cent of those levels, with arrivals from China still quite low at 31 per cent. The freeze in the Vietnamese real estate sector has passed, but demand-supply mismatches remain, so the recovery in this area will take time.
Citi's economist Helmi Arman said, “The current trends are supporting our optimism about Vietnam’s positive structural story. But although the foundation for recovery is visible, it is unclear how soon the economy will begin firing on all cylinders.”
Ramachandran A.S., country officer for Citi in Vietnam added, “I am confident in asserting that Vietnam's resilient economy possesses the inherent ability to navigate hurdles and continue a positive trajectory. Citi is committed to supporting its growth and that of our clients operating within this dynamic landscape.”
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