Hanoi condo supply hits highest peak since 2020

According to CBRE's real estate market insights in the second quarter, in the first half of 2024, new residential supply in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City experienced different trends, particularly in the condominium market.

In Hanoi, new condominium supply in Q2/2024 increased nearly four times the number recorded in the last quarter, reaching approximately 8,500 units.

During the first half of 2024, the total new supply of condominiums in Hanoi exceeded 10,840 units, coming from 17 projects.

This is the highest new supply recorded during the first half of a year in Hanoi since 2020. In Q2 2024, most of the new supply continued to focus on the West of Hanoi and mainly came from two projects, including Lumi Hanoi (phase 1) and Imperia Sola Park.

On the other hand, in Ho Chi Minh City, after only 500 new condominium units launched in Q1, Q2 this year saw an additional launch of 1,200 units, located in the East and South areas of the city.

Most of the new launches in the city within the first half of 2024 came from existing projects launching their next phases, while there were only two newly launched projects including The Aurora in Phu My Hung (82 units) and Eaton Park in District 2 (841 units).

Abundant new supply during the quarter was matched with a strong buying momentum in Hanoi's condominium market as total sold units in H1/2024 alone already surpassed the full-year sales figures for 2023. Particularly in Q2/2024, the number of sold units reached 10,170 units, which was five times higher than the sold units recorded in both Q1/2024 and the same period last year.

In Ho Chi Minh City, with limited new condominium supply in the first half of 2024 (only equal to 40 per cent of new supply in H1/2023), the number of sold units in H1/2024 reached 80 per cent compared to the same period last year, reaching over 1,700 sold condominium units. Due to limited new supply, projects with new launches in the city during the first six months all achieved positive sales rates.

In terms of pricing, the condominium selling prices in Hanoi are quickly approaching the levels recorded in Ho Chi Minh City in both primary and secondary markets. In the primary market, average selling prices of Hanoi condominium reached approximately VND 60 million per sq.m ($2,400), which was only VND3 million lower than the current average prices in Ho Chi Minh City.

Compared to the previous period, the average primary selling prices in Hanoi increased by 6.5 per cent on quarter and nearly 25 per cent on year. High-end new supply continues to account for a large proportion, along with a stronger presence of developers from the South, which have kept the market-wide primary prices of condominium in Hanoi at a high level.

In the secondary market, after a period of rapid growth in the selling prices of condominiums in Hanoi in Q1/2024, price increases in Q2 slowed down, up by 5 per cent on quarter and over 22 per cent on year.

The average secondary selling prices of Hanoi condominium at the end of Q2 2024 reached approximately VND 38 million per sq.m. ($1,500). Abundant new supply in this quarter has driven the selling prices in the secondary market towards a more stable cycle.

In Ho Chi Minh City, the primary selling prices continued to increase slightly, up by 3 per cent on quarter and 6 per cent on year, reaching over VND 63 million per sq.m.

Particularly in Q2, more than 70 per cent of the new launches (coming from the two projects of foreign developers) located in prime locations close to the centre business district have been introduced to the city's market under high-end and luxury segments. The selling prices of these new launched units were set two to three times higher than the average market-wide price.

With the momentum of rising primary selling prices in Ho Chi Minh City's condominium market, along with projects adjusting their selling prices higher than previous selling phases, the secondary selling prices in the city also recorded an increase of 4 per cent on quarter and 3 per cent on year.

Such mega projects located far from the centre business districts that provided a large volume of condominium supply and used to record declining asking secondary prices in previous quarters also saw an increase in secondary prices in Q2/2024, up 2–3 per cent on year thanks to positive news around the completion and opening of new amenities within the project and the progressive construction status of infrastructure around the project area.

Moving forwards, new condominium supply in Hanoi is expected to welcome more than 9,000 units during the second half of 2024, according to the CBRE. This would bring the total number of new condominiums launched in 2024 to nearly 20,000 units, the highest annual new supply ever recorded since 2020 in Hanoi.

As the primary condominium supply continues to increase in the coming period, the growth momentum of secondary selling prices is anticipated to slow further. Primary condominium prices in Hanoi are expected to rise by 22 per cent on-year by the end of 2024.

In Ho Chi Minh City, with around 8,000 new condominium units in total expected to be launched during 2024, the primary selling prices continue to increase by approximately 5 per cent on year, narrowing the gap between the primary condominium prices between Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City.

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