Banks post Q1 gains amid sharpening profit divide

Tu Tien Phat, CEO of southern lender ACB, said recent international conflicts had affected the operations of local banking sector. However, according to the bank’s assessment, the impact is indirect and does not materially affect its core business pillars.

Funding cost advantages help state-owned banks maintain solid growth momentum in Q1

“We have identified several influencing factors. Regarding inflation, this year’s control target is set at around 4.5 per cent. Current conflicts not only affect fuel prices, but also spill over into corporate operating costs as well as household living expenses. Even so, ACB believes keeping inflation around 4.5 per cent remains feasible,” he said.

Despite facing multiple challenges, ACB maintained positive business results in the first quarter of 2026, with pre-tax profit reaching approximately $216 million, up 56 per cent compared to Q4/2025, and up 17 per cent on-year.

The bank’s credit growth exceeded 3.2 per cent. The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained below 1 per cent, specifically at 0.97 per cent. With this performance, ACB has completed about 24 per cent of its full-year profit target.

At its AGM on April 9, ACB approved a target of total assets increasing by 16 per cent by year-end compared to the outset of the year. The NPL ratio is to be kept below 2 per cent. Its pre-tax profit for 2026 is projected to rise 14 per cent on-year, approximating $891 million.

According to Pham Hong Hai, CEO of OCB, OCB targets total assets of about $14.17 billion by the end of 2026, up 10 per cent from the start of the year. Pre-tax profit is set at approximately $278 million, up 39 per cent from 2025, a goal the bank is confident to achieve.

“In Q1 of 2026, the bank’s non-interest income continued to rise by more than 80 per cent, indicating this trend is proving effective,” he said.

Earlier, on April 8, VIB held its 2026 AGM, approving a pre-tax profit plan of $460 million, up 27 per cent on-year.

The bank targets credit growth of 15 per cent, reaching an estimated $17.60 billion. Total assets are expected to increase 15 per cent on-year to more than $25.48 billion. The NPL ratio shall be maintained below 3 per cent.

According to a reliable source, VIB’s Q1/2026 pre-tax profit is positive, estimated at $108 million.

In Q1 of 2026, credit across the entire sector continued to post positive growth. At the first-quarter 2026 press briefing, Deputy Governor of the State Bank of Vietnam Pham Thanh Ha said that as of March 31, total outstanding credit in the system exceeded $767.2 billion, up 3.18 per cent compared to end of 2025. Joint-stock banks continued to record higher growth than state-owned lenders.

MB Securities estimates that profits of listed banks under its observation will grow 19.9 per cent in 2026, lower than the previously forecast 22.3 per cent, mainly due to a downward revision in the sector’s credit growth target.

SSI Securities on March 31 released its forecast for first-quarter 2026 business results of many listed companies, including 13 banks.

Accordingly, seven banks are expected to post double-digit pre-tax profit growth in Q1 of 2026, five banks are projected to see single-digit growth, and one bank is expected to record a decline in profit.

Acccordingly, VPBank is forecast to lead growth with pre-tax profit of about $300 million, up 50 per cent on-year but down 27 per cent compared to Q4/2025.

VPBank’s credit and deposit growth are estimated at 5-6 per cent in the first quarter.

Four other banks are projected to achieve profit growth of 20 per cent or more during the period, including HDBank and OCB – both up 23 per cent, and VIB and VietinBank – both up 20 per cent.

BIDV is expected to post more modest growth of around 11 per cent on-year, with pre-tax profit reaching about $328 million – similar to VietinBank, supported by credit growth of around 3 per cent from the outset of the year.

Some banks are forecast by SSI to post single-digit profit growth in Q1 of 2026, including Techcombank, MSB, TPBank and Vietcombank.

For Techcombank, credit is estimated to rise by around 3 per cent, while net interest margin (NIM) faces pressure from rising funding costs. However, income from the bancassurance channel may partly offset the margin compression.

Meanwhile, MSB is assessed to have a stable NIM, with income from provision reversals acting as a key driver, helping the bank’s Q1 profit reach approximately $70 million, up 7 per cent on-year.

State major Vietcombank is projected to see credit and deposit growth of 3 per cent and 2 per cent, respectively, by the end of Q1 compared to the outset of the year, thereby supporting stable profit performance.

MB is forecast to report less positive Q1 profit, mainly due to the high base in the first quarter of 2025, although credit growth is still expected to remain solid at 3-4 per cent from the start of the year.

Sacombank is the only bank in the group projected by SSI to record a profit decline, with Q1 earnings expected to fall 46 per cent on-year. Although NIM may normalise after a sharp decline in the final quarter of last year, asset quality pressures persist as non-performing loans continue to rise, keeping the bank’s credit costs at elevated levels.

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