Vietnam remains top EU investment destination despite global headwinds

The latest Business Confidence Index (BCI), released on April 15, shows a pragmatic recalibration among European investors, with confidence holding steady as companies adapt to shifting global conditions.

The first quarter 2026 edition of EuroCham's BCI

The index stands at 72.7, down 7.3 points from its recent peak of 80.0 in the fourth quarter of 2025, reflecting a more cautious outlook amid rising geopolitical tensions. Yet, the index remains well above levels recorded over the past four years, reinforcing a consistent message emerging from the data: while global turbulence is influencing short-term sentiment, Vietnam’s long-term appeal remains firmly intact.

A remarkable 93 per cent of European business leaders say they would recommend Vietnam as an investment destination, among the strongest endorsements in the history of the survey.

The latest BCI report delves deeper into the anatomy of investor resilience. It maps how different supply chain configurations shape risk exposure and outlines the critical regulatory reforms that investors expect from Vietnam’s newly elected government to sustain long-term momentum.

"What we are witnessing in the first quarter is not a retreat, but a necessary recalibration," commented European Chamber of Commerce in Vietnam (EuroCham) chairman Bruno Jaspaert. "The global economy today resembles a shipping route passing through rough waters, particularly tensions in the Middle East that are driving energy price volatility and supply chain adjustments. In times like these, companies look for safe harbours where they can dock with confidence. The BCI data shows that while the geopolitical weather outside may be stormy, Vietnam’s economic foundations remain resilient."

The shadow of global trade tensions looms large over the 2026 planning cycle. One year after the United States’ sweeping trade policy announcements on its so-called 'Liberation Day', businesses are still adjusting to a more fragmented and unpredictable global trading environment.

At the time, EuroCham conducted a rapid survey to capture the immediate reaction of European companies operating in Vietnam. The results indicated that more than 70 per cent of respondents expected 'High' or 'Very High' volatility, prompting many firms to revise revenue projections downward and adopt more cautious operating strategies. Most companies anticipated financial losses linked to tariffs, typically estimating a 20 per cent reduction in their bottom line.

The BCI report provides a reflection on how businesses have actually performed since then. The findings point to a far more resilient outcome than many initially feared. Despite persistent geopolitical uncertainty, 77per cent of European businesses operating in Vietnam managed to maintain or increase their revenue in 2025, with 40 per cent reporting revenue growth. While 23 per cent experienced declines, most were moderate, suggesting that global tensions have tempered expansion rather than derailing it altogether.

The data ultimately reinforces Vietnam’s role as a stabilising node within global supply chains: a market where long-term fundamentals continue to outweigh short-term geopolitical turbulence.

Today, however, the nature of risk is evolving. Businesses are no longer focused solely on trade disruptions, but increasingly on the secondary economic effects of global instability, mainly tied with the prolonged conflict in the Middle East. Energy and fuel price volatility has emerged as the most widely cited concern, affecting 75 per cent of surveyed businesses, followed by rising operating costs (61 per cent) and the risk of a slowdown in global demand (55 per cent).

Altogether, 90 per cent of respondents identify cost pressures and geopolitical conflicts as the defining risks for the year ahead. This shift highlights a broader dynamic shaping the business outlook for 2026. The challenge facing investors in Vietnam is no longer about whether opportunities exist, but rather how efficiently companies can capture them in an environment characterised by higher costs, supply chain adjustments, and greater operational complexity.

"Our members distinguish between the operational hurdles of today and the strategic dividends of tomorrow," Jaspaert said.

"When over nine out of 10 businesses continue to champion this market, it speaks volumes about Vietnam's extraordinary growth potential. The sustained GDP performance – with first-quarter 2026 expanding by 7.83 per cent, outpacing the same period last year – reinforces this confidence. The BCI numbers prove that the deeper companies anchor their operations in Vietnam, the more financially resilient they become, even when the broader global picture is fraught with risk."

European firms remain keen on Vietnam despite trade pressures As international trade tensions mount and supply chains remain under pressure, European businesses in Vietnam are showing remarkable resilience.

Vietnam remains promising destination for European investment in Asia Against the backdrop of the volatile and unpredictable global environment, Vietnam remains one of the most promising destinations for European investment in Asia.

European business confidence reaches highest in seven years EuroCham released the Q4 2025 edition of its Business Confidence Index (BCI) on January 13, recording its highest level in seven years and marking a decisive shift in European business sentiment.