HSBC: Vietnam to enjoy rapid trade growth in next 15 years

July 11, 2012 | 14:16

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Vietnam is expected to see rapid trade growth in the next 15 years, according to the Global Connections Report, announced by the Hong Kong Shanghai Banking Corporation (HSBC) on July 10.

The report says that Vietnam’s total trade value from 2012 to 2026 will rise by 187 per cent, close to double the increase in global trade.

Growth is forecast to be 8.2 per cent over the next five years and then at a similar pace to 2021, before slowing like its Asian peers in 2022-26 to around 5.3 per cent.

According to the HSBC Trade Confidence Index, confidence amongst Vietnamese international businesses remains stable and relatively high. Indexed scores of 116, 115 and 115 have been recorded since the first half of 2011.

Despite an 8 per cent contraction since the second half of 2011, 80 per cent of respondents still expect to see trade volumes remain stable or grow in the next six months.

The survey shows that in the near term, intra-regional trade will remain critical for Vietnamese businesses now and over the next six months.

Vietnam’s major export partners are the main trading nations of the world, including the US, Japan, China and Germany. Export growths to all these markets are expected to remain strong with the US being the largest by some distance, at 6.6 per cent overall.

Exports to Japan are forecast to enjoy a growth of around 6 per cent while export growth to China is expected to be particularly strong at over 10 per cent, reflecting the growth in intra-regional trade.