Finding a homegrown growth driver for Vietnam

On September 16, the University of Economics and Business under Vietnam National University, Hanoi (VNU-UEB), in collaboration with the Vietnam Institute of Economics and World Institute under Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences, held the 2025 Economic Forum.

Nguyen Duc Hien, Deputy Head of the Party Central Committee's Policy and Strategy Department, said that Vietnam is entering a historically significant phase of development. The Party and the state have set an ambitious goal of achieving double-digit economic growth during 2026-2030, viewing this not only as a strategic aspiration but also as a measure of the nation's resilience, vision, and macroeconomic management capacity.

"However, to realise such ambitious goals, we cannot continue to rely on traditional growth drivers such as resource exploitation, cheap labour, or capital expansion. Vietnam must forge modern, sustainable drivers suited to the digital and green eras, while fully utilising opportunities from international economic integration to achieve breakthroughs," he said.

Key drivers highlighted include: developing a modern institutional framework and a transparent, fair environment to unlock all societal resources; advancing science, technology, innovation, and digital transformation as primary drivers of productivity and competitiveness; and focusing on highly qualified people, particularly in high-tech, digital economy, green economy, and global governance sectors.

“At the same time, we must enhance the role of the domestic private sector, improve foreign investment attraction efficiency in connection with technology transfer, and foster a sustainable production-innovation ecosystem. Above all, economic growth must be linked with green development, environmental protection, social equity, and improve quality of life for the people,” Hien underlined.

Le Trung Thanh, rector of VNU-UEB, reaffirmed that Vietnam urgently needs to build modern and sustainable growth drivers based on transparent institutions, innovation, digital transformation, and green development, while seizing opportunities from global integration.

“We are living in an era where economic rules, power structures, and global value chains are being rewritten. The post-pandemic world, along with geopolitical conflicts, technological divides, and climate change pressures, has forced both developed and developing economies to reexamine their development paths,” he said.

He added that these growth drivers are essential, including efficient and dynamic institutions; a workforce capable of lifelong learning and mastering new knowledge; innovation and digital technologies as indispensable components of competitiveness; a green and environmentally sustainable economy; and the system's ability to learn, adapt, and cooperate.

Tran Van Tho, professor emeritus at Waseda University in Japan, noted that over the past 35 years, Vietnam's average growth rate was 6.5 per cent. “Vietnam has not yet experienced a period of sustained double-digit growth (10 per cent annually for over 10 years) like Japan, South Korea, or China,” he said.

Regarding solutions for Vietnam's economic growth, Tho proposed policies such as creating mechanisms for large enterprises to work with the state in shaping a long-term economic vision; encouraging tech transfer and management know-how through links with small- and medium-sized enterprises; expanding production and export scale in existing industries or developing new ones; and promoting policies to develop supporting industries.

“With the current determination to reform institutions and the policy proposals discussed, I believe Vietnam can achieve a higher growth rate in the coming period,” the professor stated. To this end, he emphasised full employment, universal free primary and secondary education, and proper investment in healthcare services.

“It is necessary to establish pension and unemployment insurance systems so that every citizen feels secure about their future,” he added.

At the open discussion session, representatives from regulatory agencies, international organisations like the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and scholars engaged in lively exchanges on growth drivers and major solutions such as institutional frameworks, sci-tech development, and training people in high technology, the digital economy, the green economy, and international governance.

MoIT is confident in hitting trade growth targets for 2025 The Ministry of Industry and Trade has expressed confidence that Vietnam can achieve its full-year export–import growth target of 12 per cent, citing robust results in the first seven months as a strong foundation.

World Bank forecasts Vietnam's GDP growth to reach 6.6 per cent in 2025 Vietnam's GDP growth is forecast to reach 6.6 per cent in 2025, according to the latest report by the World Bank.

IMF projects Vietnam's economic growth to ease to 6.5 per cent in 2025 Vietnam's economic growth is predicted to slow to 6.5 per cent in 2025 due to the impact of US tariffs, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).