Stocks poised for earnings-led boost as Q2 profits accelerate

Following a strong recovery in 2025, listed companies are expected to maintain positive earnings momentum in the second quarter of 2026, although growth is likely to vary significantly across sectors.

Hoang Viet Phuong, director of Research and Investment Advisory at VNDIRECT Securities, noted that double-digit earnings growth for the overall market in Q2 is entirely achievable as business activities across many sectors continue to improve.

The main growth drivers are expected to come from large-cap sectors, including real estate, securities, banking and oil and gas, supported by a low comparison base from the same period last year as well as a more favourable business environment.

Banks continue to be the major growth driver of the stock market in Q2

Meanwhile, Tran Anh Tuan, director of Research at PetroVietnam Securities (PSI), believes overall market earnings growth of around 18 per cent is consistent with current conditions.

The recovery, however, is unlikely to be broad-based and will instead be concentrated in a number of leading sectors.

“Banking will remain the market’s most important growth driver. The State Bank of Vietnam’s shift towards a more flexible credit management mechanism, no longer allocating credit growth quotas on a quarterly basis as in the past, has created conditions for banks to accelerate lending and improve net interest income,” Tuan said.

In addition, Circular No.08/2026/TT-NHNN issued by the State Bank of Vietnam allows 20 per cent of term deposits from the State Treasury to continue being included in the loan-to-deposit ratio calculation. This has significantly eased liquidity pressures across the banking system, particularly among state-owned commercial banks.

Although net interest margins may face some pressure from rising funding costs, major banks with strong asset quality, such as Vietcombank, VietinBank, and ACB, are still expected to report double-digit earnings growth in Q2.

In the real estate sector, positive prospects are being supported by the continued removal of legal delays, faster project implementation, and revenue recognition from projects sold in previous periods.

Leading developers such as Vinhomes and Nam Long are expected to record substantial profit improvements thanks to the handover of large-scale projects.

At the same time, the ongoing wave of public investment and infrastructure development is creating additional momentum for the property market, particularly in areas benefiting from increasingly well-developed transportation connectivity.

According to market experts, housing demand is increasingly shifting towards integrated urban developments, satellite mega-urban areas, and the mid-range apartment segment, creating opportunities for developers with clean land banks and strong project execution capabilities.

In addition to banking and real estate, a number of non-financial sectors are also expected to post positive earnings growth as commodity prices remain elevated.

According to PSI, Brent crude oil prices continuing to trade around $100 per barrel is creating better conditions across the entire oil and gas value chain.

Exploration and production activities are gaining momentum as oil prices remain attractive, while major projects such as the Block B – O Mon gas-to-power chain are entering the implementation phase after years of delay.

In the upstream segment, oilfield service providers are benefiting from increased investment demand. Meanwhile, oil and gas transportation companies continue to be supported by elevated freight rates driven by ongoing geopolitical uncertainties around the world.

For the refining and petrochemical sector, refining margins, or crack spreads, for many products remain significantly higher than levels seen before recent geopolitical conflicts, providing support for business performance.

Beyond oil and gas, the materials and construction materials sectors are also expected to benefit as prices of many key commodities rebound amid rising demand from infrastructure construction and public investment projects.

Phuong of VNDIRECT Securities said construction materials represented one of the sectors with particularly attractive prospects, supported by faster public investment disbursement this year.

“As a series of major transportation infrastructure projects enter peak construction phases, demand for steel, cement, construction stone, and materials will continue to increase. In addition, the shipping sector is benefiting from freight rates remaining at elevated levels, while logistics companies have opportunities to improve profit margins as cargo volumes continue to grow,” Phuong said.

However, analysts caution that part of the strong earnings growth expected in Q2 reflects a low comparison base from the previous year. As a result, investors should carefully assess the quality of earnings growth rather than focusing solely on the headline growth rate.

Against a backdrop of continued market divergence, investors are advised to prioritise companies with strong financial fundamentals, solid cash flow generation, sustainable earnings growth, and leading positions within their respective industries.

These are expected to be the companies best positioned to attract capital inflows as Q2 earnings results are gradually released.

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