SBV credit policy shift puts banks and developers in spotlight

On June 22, the central bank (SBV) issued Circular No.25/2026/TT-NHNN amending several provisions of Circular No.22/2019/TT-NHNN, introducing two notable changes.

First, the maximum ratio of short-term funding that banks may use for medium- and long-term lending has been increased from 30 per cent to 40 per cent.

The amendment is considered highly significant at a time when demand for medium- and long-term financing is rising sharply, particularly for real estate, infrastructure, energy and industrial park projects.

Second, banks are now permitted to include 20 per cent of the State Treasury's term deposits in their total deposits when calculating the loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR). The change is expected to improve liquidity indicators significantly for many banks, especially state-owned lenders.

In addition, the SBV has introduced a special mechanism allowing new loans extended to 18 projects developed by major groups including Vingroup, Sun Group and Masterise to be excluded from annual credit growth limits.

According to estimates by VNDIRECT Securities, the combined funding requirement for these projects will approximate $30.08 billion during 2026-2028. In 2026 alone, the projects could increase total outstanding credit in the banking system by approximately $8.4 billion, equivalent to nearly 1 per cent of total system-wide loans.

Analysts believe the move signals a shift in regulatory policy from distributing credit quotas evenly across the banking sector to prioritising capital flows towards large-scale projects capable of generating stronger economic growth.

Although the new policies significantly expand lending capacity, analysts expect the impact to vary across institutions.

Banks with high capital adequacy ratios, strong asset quality and robust risk management capabilities are expected to capitalise more effectively on the opportunity to expand lending.

In contrast, lenders with thinner capital buffers or elevated non-performing loan ratios will still need to exercise caution, as new loans still spot on their balance sheets, increasing pressure on their capital adequacy ratios as well as raising risk concentration threat.

According to MBS Research, non-performing loan pressure showed no clear signs of easing during the second quarter of 2026.

Loan-loss provisioning expenses at banks under MBS observation are projected to increase by around 19 per cent on-year, preventing profit growth from fully matching the pace of credit expansion.

Meanwhile, VNDIRECT also cautioned that strong credit demand could continue to tighten liquidity conditions if deposit growth fails to keep pace, placing upward pressure on interest rates.

Considering factors including liquidity advantages, the ability to participate in project financing and room for further credit expansion, securities firms have consistently favoured state-owned banks.

Vietcombank, BIDV and VietinBank are viewed as the primary beneficiaries of both policy changes, namely the revised LDR calculation formula and the special credit mechanism for strategic projects.

Among private-sector lenders, Techcombank stands out thanks to its extensive experience in real estate financing and large syndicated loans.

MB, VPBank and HDBank are also viewed positively due to their strong credit growth and capacity to expand corporate lending.

With Vietnam maintaining an ambitious GDP growth target, credit flows are expected to continue prioritising large-scale infrastructure and real estate developments.

This is likely not only to support lending activities across the banking sector, but also to serve as a fresh catalyst for banking stocks during the second half of 2026.

Beyond the banking sector, residential and commercial real estate developers, represented by VHM, KDH, NLG, NVL, PDR and DIG, are expected to benefit through a dual mechanism as developers gain access to more affordable medium- and long-term financing while lower mortgage rates stimulate housing demand.

Industrial real estate companies including KBC, IDC, BCM and SZC are expected to benefit from expanded land bank development, while infrastructure and build-operate-transfer operators such as HHV, CII, VCG and FCN, whose projects typically have investment horizons of 10 to 25 years and rely heavily on long-term financing, are likely to benefit directly from lower borrowing costs through improved profit margins.

Suppliers of construction materials, particularly steel producers such as HPG and NKG, are also expected to benefit.

Nevertheless, analysts believe the stock market is likely to become increasingly polarised in the future. The expansion of credit does not mean that all banking, real estate or infrastructure stocks will benefit equally.

Companies with strong fundamentals, prudent risk management and the ability to participate in strategic projects will be best positioned to translate the new policies into sustainable earnings growth.

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