Vietnam eyes stock market breakthrough by 2030

At an event titled “Driving Forces Behind New Capital Inflows”, hosted by VIR on July 23, fund managers, business leaders, and state regulators agreed that Vietnam is entering a new phase of development marked by decisive reforms and a long-term strategic vision.

Within this transformation, the capital market is expected to play a central role in mobilising resources for growth, particularly as the country aims to become a regional financial hub by 2030.

According to Dang Nguyet Minh, head of research at Dragon Capital, this transformation is anchored in three key pillars: modern infrastructure, double-digit economic growth centred on technology, and a reformed financial market that can position Vietnam as a new capital market hub in the region.

“This vision must be underpinned by a streamlined, consistent, and unified political system and, for the first time, we are seeing that cohesion from the top down. That is a significant turning point,” Minh said.

Dang Nguyet Minh, head of research at Dragon Capital, delivered her presentation at the event via an online platform

Vietnam is making bold moves in infrastructure development with flagship projects such as the North-South motorway, 1,500km of high-speed rail, and expanded metro systems and deep-sea ports. These developments are expected to improve connectivity and reduce logistics costs, which currently stand at 16 per cent of GDP, among the highest globally.

Minh emphasised that Vietnam's economic structure is also shifting from relying on foreign capital and labour migration to nurturing domestic growth drivers.

“Previously, our economy relied on integrating into global supply chains and attracting foreign giants. But now, the strategy is fundamentally changing,” she explained. “From 2025 onwards, growth will come from with the government actively supporting strategic industries that can spark ripple effects across the economy, foster industry clusters, and build national champions that can uplift smaller enterprises.”

To finance large-scale infrastructure and industrial expansion, Vietnam’s capital market must evolve rapidly. Minh believed that an upgrade of the stock market’s classification is essential to unlocking long-term global capital flows.

“We are confident that Vietnam will be upgraded to Emerging Market status by FTSE Russell this September,” she said. “More importantly, this is no longer just an ambition; it has become a coherent, nationwide strategy focused on regulatory reform, investor access, and proactive engagement with global index providers.”

Large Vietnamese corporations are also preparing for IPOs in 2026-2027, providing critical momentum for market expansion and diversification.

“These IPOs will act as catalysts, making the market more dynamic and offering more quality options for investors. We believe this is just the beginning of a longer-term structural upgrade,” added Minh.

She went on to point out that stock markets in many Asian economies historically outperformed all other asset classes during their high-growth phases.

“In countries where GDP growth reached double digits and investment-to-GDP ratios were 30-40 per cent, similar to Vietnam’s current targets, equity became the most attractive asset class,” Minh noted. “Returns could multiply 5 to 10 times, even up to 12 times in some cases. Valuations surged to price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 25-50, supported by annual earnings growth of 20-30 per cent.”

Overview of the “Driving Forces Behind New Capital Inflows” event, hosted by VIR on July 23

With Vietnam recently reaching a tariff agreement with the US, a major external risk has been removed, setting the stage for more stable growth over the next 5-10 years.

Despite this favourable outlook, Minh acknowledged that Vietnam’s stock market remains underappreciated in terms of both valuation and investor structure. A clear strategy is needed to attract large-scale global institutional investors while also encouraging local retail investors to take a longer-term view.

“We are still far from the government’s goal of a stock market worth 120 per cent of GDP by 2030. Today, we’re only at around 50-55 per cent, so we need to double in size,” she said.

“To get there, listed companies must improve in transparency and scale. The market must become more attractive, not only in performance but in governance and sustainability.”

She also highlighted Resolution 68 as a major step in empowering the private sector and encouraging more Vietnamese companies to grow into global players.

“Vietnam needs 20 leading enterprises of international calibre to participate deeply in global supply chains. To achieve that, they need access to long-term capital, and the stock market is the most efficient channel for that purpose.”

Based on the above analysis, Minh has a confident vision for 2030, one where Vietnam emerges as a forward-looking economy with a capital market worthy of global recognition.

“We envision a Vietnam by 2030 that is modern, future-oriented, and supported by a unified political structure and a maturing capital market,” she concluded. “Vietnamese equities are still mispriced relative to their true potential, but with the right strategies in place, we can attract world-class investors and solidify our place on the global financial map.”

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