Securities firms face diverging profits in Q3 amid weak liquidity

The third-quarter earnings season has just begun, and securities companies, which are typically among the first market participants to release their business results, are starting to announce their reports.

Accordingly, MB Securities Corporation has reported after-tax profit approximating $12.6 million for Q3/2026, down 5 per cent on-year.

Gains from financial assets at fair value through profit or loss (FVTPL) rose 146 per cent on-year. However, losses from these assets surged to $19.2 million, resulting in significantly weaker overall performance from this activity compared with the same period last year. Revenue from securities brokerage also fell 65 per cent to $5.1 million.

Fluctuations in market liquidity directly affect brokerage revenue and the business performance of securities firms. Photo: baodautu.vn

Meanwhile, HVS Vietnam Securities Corporation recorded solid growth in both revenue and after-tax profit in Q3. Its after-tax profit reached $84,000, 3.6 times the figure recorded one year ago.

The result was driven by a 77 per cent increase in operating revenue to $204,000. The main revenue contributor was interest income from held-to-maturity investments, consisting entirely of deposit contracts with terms of more than three months.

Another small brokerage, BIS Securities Corporation, has also announced its Q3 business results, with after-tax profit improving by more than $228,000 compared with Q3/2025.

BIS’s quarterly revenue surged 423 per cent to $636,000, driven by $424,000 in revenue from financial advisory services. Gains from financial assets at FVTPL also climbed sharply, increasing 19.5-fold on-year to $156,000.

Although these improvements were insufficient to cover expenses and BIS still posted an after-tax loss of about $60,000, the result was considerably better than the loss amounting to $292,000 in the same period last year.

These results do not yet represent the overall earnings picture for the sector. However, given developments in Vietnam’s stock market during Q3/2026, securities companies are not expected to be among the industries delivering strong profit growth.

According to analysts at VPBank Securities (VPBankS), the securities sector’s Q3 business results are expected to decline on-year, primarily because of the high base in Q3/2025, when liquidity and trading value surged, boosting brokerage income and making on-year comparisons more challenging.

Meanwhile, analysts at Vietcombank Securities (VCBS) forecast that most securities companies will report weaker Q3 results, as average daily market liquidity has fallen by around 55-60 per cent on-year and market volatility is expected to cool margin lending balances.

However, lending balances are still expected to grow on-year, supported by additional capital raised through capital-raising exercises in the second half of 2025 and the first half of 2026.

Leading securities companies may report weaker Q3 results than a year earlier as brokerage revenue declines in line with market liquidity.

Small and medium-sized brokerages, meanwhile, could experience steeper declines because their strong proprietary trading profits in Q3/2025 created a high comparison base.

Research teams have also issued forecasts for the business results of some of the market’s largest securities companies.

VPBankS expects SSI Securities Corporation’s Q3 profit to fall 23.4 per cent on-year, mainly due to the high base in Q3/2025, when strong market liquidity and trading activity significantly boosted brokerage revenue.

VCBS also estimates that SSI’s profit could decline by around 29.3 per cent in Q3 of this year.

For Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corporation (HSC), both research teams forecast that HSC’s Q3/2026 after-tax profit will fall by 13-14 per cent on-year amid a sharp decline in market liquidity.

Vietcap Securities is also likely to be affected by the broader downturn, with VCBS forecasting an 18.7 per cent on-year decline in its after-tax profit compared with Q3/2025. The forecast reflects the research team’s view that Vietcap’s market share could edge down as foreign investors’ contribution to total trading value declines from the previous quarter.

According to estimates by analysts at FPT Securities (FPTS), the securities sector’s gross profit margin from brokerage activities stood at 21.1 per cent in Q3 of this year, down from both the previous quarter and the same period last year, as trading fees continued to narrow and market liquidity remained subdued.

FPTS estimates that the net interest margin on margin lending will narrow by around 4 basis points quarter on quarter to 6.7 per cent in Q3/2026, as funding costs for margin lending are expected to rise by 14 basis points and lending rates by 9 basis points compared with Q2.

Nevertheless, divergent profit performance in Q3 does not necessarily mean the securities sector’s outlook will remain subdued in the coming period.

Securities companies’ business results are closely linked to market developments, particularly liquidity, demand for financial leverage and the performance of proprietary trading activities.

In the short term, the securities sector’s profit recovery prospects will continue to depend significantly on the market’s ability to engage stronger cash flows.

Securities firms target double-digit growth despite market volatility Securities firms are projecting strong revenue and profit growth for 2026, driven by economic recovery, policy support, and expectations of a stock market upgrade set to attract greater foreign investment.

Brokerage competition intensifies as market liquidity surges in Q1 Competition among securities firms for brokerage market share is intensifying as rising liquidity fuels growth, with capital strength, technology investment, and service ecosystems emerging as key advantages.

Profit divide widens among securities firms in Q1 The securities industry posted a stark split in the first quarter of 2026, with bank-backed brokerages delivering strong profit growth while smaller firms struggled with losses amid rising competition and risky proprietary bets.