CIEM presents three scenarios at VIR summit

August 09, 2023 | 15:23

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At the 2023 Vietnam Wealth Advisor Summit (VWAS) at the Pullman Hanoi on August 8, Nguyen Anh Duong, head of the Central Institute for Economic Management's (CIEM) Macroeconomic Division, said that the economy is showing signs of recovery, but still has many challenges ahead.

CIEM presents three scenarios at VIR summit

Nguyen Anh Duong, head of the CIEM's Macroeconomic Division

According to Duong, although the world economy still faces many difficulties, there have been some changes. International organisations have adjusted their global economic growth forecasts this year, and the International Monetary Fund has forecasted world economic growth in 2023 and 2024 at about 3 per cent.

“The trend of raising interest rates to curb inflation still exists, but is no longer mainstream thinking. Although the US Federal Reserve is still considering the possibility of raising interest rates, we have witnessed a reversal of that strategy in many countries, including Vietnam. In the first half of the year, the State Bank of Vietnam adjusted the operating interest rate twice,” Duong said.

“Considering the correlation between credit growth and GDP growth, it shows that when credit growth tends to decrease, GDP growth also decreases,” he added.

Based on the above reality, the CIEM issued three scenarios for the macroeconomy this year.

In the first scenario, Vietnamese GDP growth is forecast to reach 5.34 per cent this year, while exports are likely to drop by 5.64 per cent. The consumer price index (CPI) is to inch up 3.43 per cent, with the country posting a trade surplus of $9.1 billion.

In the second scenario, GDP growth is projected at 5.72 per cent this year, with exports suffering a decline of 3.66 per cent. The CPI is to increase by 3.87 per cent, with Vietnam racking up a trade surplus of $10.3 billion.

In the third one, the CIEM expects GDP growth to be at 6.46 per cent in 2023, with exports for the whole year only decreasing by 2.17 per cent, average CPI increases by 4.39 per cent, and the trade surplus may be at $6.8 billion.

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