Mid- and high-end housing will see a large downward adjustment. Because this market was too high last year, and buyers are making large adjustments in demand, behaviour and prospects. Moreover, the industrial real estate market this year is forecast to grow, so more resources will be poured into this segment. Other housing and land areas will not have large fluctuations.
![]() |
Tran Kim Chung, Former vice president, Central Institute for Economic Management |
Resort real estate will be divided. Those owned by buyers will be vibrant, but shared ownership will be difficult because there is not a strong enough legal system to regulate shared ownership products. Tourism has recovered, so real estate owned by one owner transactions can be carried out easily.
The financial real estate segment will not have major fluctuations. Products are still stocks and bonds of real estate enterprises. However, the pressure to mature real estate bonds will be loosened compared to 2024, especially compared to 2022-2023. The strong changes in the real estate market will be shared ownership products and real estate trust funds.
Vietnam’s local real estate market prospects will see vibrant development in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, but there will no longer be sudden increases like in 2024. Some small segments, such as mid-high-end apartments, will even have downward adjustments. However, the fluctuations in these two localities will be different. While Ho Chi Minh City will continue to see a small increase, several areas in Hanoi will remain flat or even have downward adjustments.
There will be no increase in localities adjacent to the two big cities because the high prices in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City will not continue to spread. In some emerging localities, the real estate market will see some breakthroughs, as the legality of products in these localities continue to have advantages.
Looking at cash flows into the real estate market this year, foreign direct investment will continue to grow steadily. Public investment continues to be strong. However, the level depends on disbursement capacity. Private enterprise investment is stable, not seeing a breakthrough but not stagnant. Investment by secondary entities sees no clear trend. Derivative financial instruments have not had huge successes.
In 2025, there will be competition for capital with other product markets. The stock market will also operate in 2024 with no sudden changes, so the interaction with the real estate market will not have a major manifestation. However, the digital market will have many fluctuations, with the newly elected US administration taking office on January 20. If the situation is favourable for the digital market, the Vietnamese real estate market may be affected.
The neutral scenario, in which prices rise slightly, is the most likely. This was the clearest scenario at the end of last year. The positive scenario is much desired but very unlikely. The difficult scenario, which no-one wants, is the least likely to happen. However, it could happen if certain factors outside the domestic economy appear.
Some risks we can see right now come from unpredictable geopolitical conflicts globally, coupled with competition among big countries, especially with the new US administration. International socioeconomic risks are present, but very difficult to predict.
In 2025, the macroeconomy will be stable, so the real estate market will see no considerable changes. According to the 10-year plan for real estate, the estate market may benefit from macroeconomic policies this year.
Other risks related to policy, market conditions, and counterparties are not expected to be a concern. The challenges faced by enterprises, particularly regarding procedures and capital, have been fully revealed. As a result, counterparty risks in 2025 are anticipated to be minimal.
There are also recommendations to ensure the positive development in the real estate market. We should accelerate the institutionalisation of issues related to the real estate market, especially tax instruments and derivative financial instruments. For example, the Law on Real Estate Tax will take effect shortly.
It is necessary to study and realise derivative financial instruments, including timeshares, mutual savings funds, re-mortgage systems, and real estate investment trust funds.
Several mechanisms should be implemented, such as reclaiming land adjacent to infrastructure works for auction, construction following the planning to build capital for infrastructure development, and using a local budget to invest in central infrastructure works and infrastructure works outside the province.
Planning in provinces and cities should be synthesised, including for general, land use, sectoral, and urban planning. The most important thing is to synchronise such planning and place it on the land parcel map.
It is also necessary to focus on reviewing and unifying urban development, infrastructure, and production plans, thereby having a provincial-level action programme on the issue.
![]() | Contrast felt in key housing markets Vietnam’s residential housing market saw differing trends in Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi in 2024. |
![]() | Coworking spaces approach new trends The market for coworking spaces in Ho Chi Minh City witnessed impressive growth and vibrant development in 2024 after a long period of gloom. |
![]() | Land list produces concern over escalation in prices The application of the land price list adjusted according to the 2024 Land Law has uncovered issues that need to be resolved after just three months of implementation. |
What the stars mean:
★ Poor ★ ★ Promising ★★★ Good ★★★★ Very good ★★★★★ Exceptional