Foreign consultant questioned over low forecasts for Tan Son Nhat Airport

The forecast of the foreign consultant is significantly lower than others'

The Ho Chi Minh City’s People’s Committee has just raised some ideas via a document sent to the Ministry of Transport (MoT) related to reviewing and considering the expansion of Tan Son Nhat International Airport.

The committee asked ADPi for a science-based forecast and update on passenger transport demand at both Tan Son Nhat and Long Thanh airports during 2017-2035. The committee also wants to estimate the number of passengers that would not be served, as well as valuate the economic damage if Tan Son Nhat’s capacity was limited at 50 million passengers per year.

The French consultant is also required to clarify the technical and economic possibility of transport connection from the southern end of the airport to the city if the passenger number hits 50 million per year.

“The consultant should analyse risks, particularly delays and consequences of Long Thanh International Airport’s construction,” noted the document signed by Tran Vinh Tuyen, Deputy Chairman of the Ho Chi Minh City’s People’s Committee.

According to the committee, based on the estimate that the total passenger transport market will increase by 16 per cent annually in 2015-2020 and 8 per cent in 2020-2030—which was approved in Decision No.236/QD-TTg to approve readjustments to the development plan for aviation transport by 2020 with vision to 2030—passenger transport demand at Tan Son Nhat International Airport is estimated to reach 83 million per year by 2025 and 121 million by 2030.

This figure is rather similar to the forecast of the International Air Transport Association (IATA) and the expert group from Ho Chi Minh City.

Meanwhile, ADPi’s research outcomes only estimate Tan Son Nhat’s capacity at 50 million passengers per year by 2025 and maintaining this figure in the next years, which is far lower than the previous forecasts. These discrepancies led the Ho Chi Minh People’s Committee to request the consultant to clarify their forecast and ensure conformity with the development plan for aviation transport.

In case Tan Son Nhat’s capacity is limited at 50 million passengers per year, the Ho Chi Minh City People’s Committee asks MoT for the full load time of the airport in order to find solutions to explore other southern international airports, such as Long Thanh and Can Tho.

ADPi Engineering, a French company was hired to review and research the master plan of Tan Son Nhat Airport and propose possible ideas. Several expansion solutions were submitted to the government by domestic consultant units.

However, there were a lot of comments about these solutions, and MoT decided to hold an international bidding according to the directions of the prime minister.

ADPi’s proposal claimed a new runway would be unnecessary, and offered enlarging the airport to the north and south while limiting its capacity to 50 million passengers by 2025. Instead, the company proposed building a new 20-million passenger terminal at the southern end of the airport, and more cargo terminals and plane maintenance facilities in the north.

Earlier, at the meeting with Nguyen Thien Nhan, Secretary of the Ho Chi Minh City Party Committee, on the expansion solutions of Tan Son Nhat International Airport, PM Nguyen Xuan Phuc assigned MoT to record all comments, including ideas of Ho Chi Minh City’s experts on upgrading the airport’s capacity to 70 million passengers.