Markets ready to ride big wave

David Kadarauch, head of research with Mekong Securities Company - Vietnam’s 2010 Best Equity Research Team as recognised by Bloomberg, said that the US Volatility Index, which measures the investors’ volatile expectations, had fallen dramatically in recent months, indicating investors were bullish.

Kadarauch said concerns over European sovereign debts had reduced, while global economic fundamentals had been strengthening in the last three to six months with some economists forecasting 4-5 per cent growth for 2011, compared to just around 2.7-3.5 per cent in earlier estimates.

“Therefore, I expect 2011 will be a good year for Vietnam, based on the fact that domestic stocks valuations are relatively cheap,” Kadarauch told Mekong Securities clients at a workshop on 2011’s market outlook in Hanoi.

Tong Minh Tuan, deputy head of research with BIDV Securities Company (BSC), said that local stock market was expected to welcome new money flows in early 2011 as banks’ available cash was huge. “This is particularly so after the banks’ minimum charter capital hike requirement was delayed for another 12 months. Moreover, there are signs that foreign portfolio investors are returning to Vietnam which help fuel investors’ sentiments to keep the market to move around 450-500 point level for the time being.”

“When market fundamentals strengthen, possibly in the first quarter of next year, the market is poised for a bull,” said Tuan, adding that the 420 point level was likely the market bottom.

In 2011, the VN-Index could rise to 780-820 points and blue-chips continued to be the best choice, said Luong Bien Nhan Quyen, Mekong Securities’ senior technical analyst.

“Nowadays no economists think of double-dip recession possibility anymore and the global economy is firmly recovering,” said Le Xuan Nghia, deputy chairman of National Financial Supervision Commission.

Nghia forecasted Vietnam’s economic growth in 2011 at between 7-7.5 per cent and inflation 7-8 per cent, compared to estimated 6.7-6.8 per cent and 11.5 per cent for 2010, respectively.