Analysts forecast VN-Index drop

Investors on the Bảo Việt Securities trading floor. - VNA/VNS Photo Phạm Hậu

On Friday, the VN-Index on the HCM Stock Exchange gained 0.56 per cent to close at 801.20 points after a seven-day rally. The rally helped the benchmark index record a weekly gain of 1.6 per cent and exceed the 800 points recorded in 2007.

On the Hà Nội Stock Exchange, the HNX-Index was down 0.66 per cent to finish the past trading week at 103.92 points. The northern market index put a dent in its three-day upward run of 0.8 per cent, and concluded the week up only 0.1 per cent from the previous week.

An average of nearly 192 million shares was traded in each session last week, worth VNĐ3.95 trillion (US$175.4 million). The trading figures were down 28 per cent in volume and 13.5 per cent in value compared to the previous trading week’s numbers.

The stock market gain was achieved due several large-cap stocks that performed quite well in all four trading days of the week after the market returned from a national holiday.

Those gainers included brewer Sabeco (SAB), FLC Faros Construction (ROS), food and beverage producer Masan Group (MSN) and PetroVietnam Gas (GAS).

SAB surged 10.7 per cent, ROS rose 5.6 per cent, MSN soared 10.4 per cent and GAS increased by 6 per cent during the week.

However, the rest of the market was quite sluggish on high investor caution. Sectors that were expected to boost the market such as banks, brokerages and insurance-finance firms underperformed.

Foreign investors finished as net sellers last week. They posted VNĐ74 billion in net sell value on the two local exchanges – contrary to the net buy value of VNĐ237.7 billion.

According to analysts, the gain of the stock market last week was not stable and the market could face a short-term declining period to accumulate and prepare for further increases.

The stock market was driven up by only a few blue chips, while a number of mid-cap stocks had fallen to make gains and returned to their low price levels, Nguyễn Ngọc Lan, head of brokerage at Agribank Securities Company, said.

“That shows the market needs some time to settle down and accumulate at the current level to increase more strongly in the future,” she said. “In the few coming weeks, large-cap stocks will take turns to lift the market up and lure investors back to the market.”

Bảo Việt Securities Company (BVSC) was even more pessimistic about the market’s short-term prospects. “Investors will increase their selling this week and focus to gain profits from mid-cap and small-cap stocks while large-cap stocks will continue performing in negative directions,” it said.

According to BIDV Securities Company (BSC), poor investor confidence resulted in low trading liquidity last week and therefore, the brokerage firm expected the VN-Index would fall in the coming week.