The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) intergovernmental forum brings together 21 economies from around the Asia-Pacific region to collaborate on the shared goal of creating a more open, resilient, sustainable, and peaceful future for the people of the world’s most dynamic region.
Vietnam is projected to be one of the top 20 fastest-growing economies in 2024, witth anticipated GDP growth of 5.8 per cent in the year, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
In its latest macroeconomic report, Standard Chartered has revised down Vietnam's GDP growth for 2023 to 5 per cent, citing weaker-than-expected performance and a challenging global economic landscape, while suggesting stronger recovery indicators in specific sectors and a need for continued vigilance in terms of monetary policy.
The statement was made by Michael Kokalari, chief economist of VinaCapital, on October 23 as he highlighted that the situation in Vietnam’s real estate market is completely different from China’s.
The Vietnamese economy is forecast to grow by 4.7 per cent in 2023, before rebounding to 6 per cent in 2024, according to the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO).
Compared to the first half of this year, noticeable improvements have been seen in terms of production activities in the third quarter. Nguyen Thi Mai Hanh, head of the System of National Accounts Department under the General Statistics Office, digs into the economic development highlights of the year to date.
UOB (United Overseas Bank) has adjusted its full-year growth forecast for Vietnam to 5 per cent from 5.2 per cent previously, with the assumption of further acceleration of real GDP growth in Q4 at 7 per cent on-year.
The Ministry of Planning and Investment's General Statistics Office held a press conference on September 29 to cover the economic situation from the first nine months of the year.
United Overseas Bank (UOB) maintains the full-year growth forecasts of 5.2 per cent for 2023 and 6 per cent for 2024, pencilling a projected 5.6 per cent on-year growth in Q3 this year and 7.6 per cent for Q4.
Under the National Master Plan for 2021-2030 with a vision to 2050, Vietnam strives to reach a GDP growth rate of approximately 7 percent per year during the 2021-30 period. By 2030, GDP per capita at current prices is expected to be around 7,500 USD.
Vietnam’s GDP growth was only 3.32 per cent in the first quarter compared to the same quarter of the previous year. Growth accelerated in the second quarter but only to 4.14 per cent – very far from the rapid pace of 7-8 per cent annually before 2020.
The Vietnam - Israel Free Trade Agreement (VIFTA) was signed on July 25 and is the latest free trade agreement (FTA) Vietnam is a party to. Joining more FTAs will create significant opportunities for the country to deeply participate in global value chains, increase exports, boost GDP growth, and improve its institutions.
Amidst the challenges in the US and EU markets, and a slower than expected recovery in China, Vietnam is facing more pressure to drive growth in the domestic market over the remainder of the year.
Vietnam’s GDP growth accelerated in Q2 of 2023 compared with Q1, but the annual growth rate of under 4 per cent during the first half of 2023 was well below the official 6.5 per cent target. While disappointing, any growth in the current difficult environment could be viewed as a positive. Importantly, the macroeconomic foundations remain mostly stable with relatively low inflation.
Although the target of 6.5 per cent GDP growth in 2023 is challenging, the disbursement of public investment could still help Vietnam get as close to that goal as possible. Deputy Minister of Planning and Investment Tran Quoc Phuong explained to VIR’s Nguyen Huong how the gradual improvement of disbursement will be a strong premise for economic growth for the rest of the year and into 2024.