VWAS 2024 panel discussion identifies global economic uncertainties

June 06, 2024 | 17:00
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Experts identified uncertainties facing the global economy and their impacts on the Vietnamese economy during the first panel discussion at the Vietnam Wealth Advisor Summit (VWAS) 2024 on June 6.
VWAS 2024 panel discussion identifies global economic uncertainties

The summit, titled "Adapting to Uncertainties", was organised by VIR and the Vietnam Wealth Advisor (VWA) community to provide insights into Vietnam’s asset management sector.

Speaking at VWAS 2024, Truong Van Phuoc, former Acting Chairman of the National Financial Supervisory Commission, said, “Developed countries are masters in planning fiscal and monetary policies. They give money to their businesses and citizens, knowing that inflation will come. The United States, Europe, and other countries accepted inflation to help their businesses and individuals get through the pandemic. This was particularly true in Vietnam when the government issued Resolution No. 43/2022/QH15 dated January 11, 2022, on fiscal and monetary policies to support the socioeconomic recovery and development programmes alongside other relief measures.”

“However, there are still some gaps in implementing such support policies, given that it takes longer for Vietnamese businesses and citizens to access subsidies. Vietnam has relatively high economic growth compared with the rest of the world. If the gap narrows, Vietnam’s economy should have higher growth, and the market should see further improvements.”

Phan Duc Hieu, a standing member of the National Assembly Economic Committee, said, “The uncertain variables are the market and institutions. Today, the market is behaving very differently than in the past, with fiercer competition between businesses in local and foreign markets. When consumer demand and the economy recovered, businesses were expected to receive new orders. However, this has not been the case and businesses worldwide are competing to recapture market share and dominate their markets.”

He further noted that it is also difficult to predict the development of technology and consumer behaviour. Over the past few years, electric vehicles have been predicted to lead the market trend. However, some major Japanese automakers have recently collaborated to develop zero-emission internal combustion engines. Obviously, it is worth taking into consideration these factors.

According to financial and banking expert Le Xuan Nghia, the biggest war humanity is fighting is against climate change. Big countries should sit down together to resolve conflicts and strive to reach the net-zero goal by 2050. By 2026, Vietnamese exporters to Europe must prepare greenhouse gas inventory reports, which must be independently audited by European companies. If businesses don’t provide these reports, they won't be able to enter the European market.

“The US is also drafting a similar law, which may be stricter than Europe,” Nghia said. “This is civilised colonialism, as developed countries have emitted the most carbon over the past two centuries. Today, they are asking developing countries to reduce their carbon emissions to combat climate change.”

VWAS 2024 panel discussion identifies global economic uncertainties

Besides these uncertainties, Tong Quoc Dat, senior market analyst at Exness Investment Bank, pointed out that one upcoming market variable is the US election. If Donald Trump becomes president again, he will increase tariff barriers for Europe and China. At the same time, Trump is unlikely to maintain an open policy for immigrants, which will affect the US labour market.

“As the flow of immigrants decreases, the cost of hiring personnel increases. The average income and hourly wage will increase again, which will put pressure on inflation. This is the variable for the dollar. If inflation increases again in 2025, the roadmap to reduce interest rates by the Fed will not be as strong as currently predicted,” he said.

Can Van Luc, member of the National Advisory Council on Financial and Monetary Policy and chief economist of BIDV, said, “We should worry about the short- and long-term to unlock growth. For instance, we must focus on the recovery of the real estate market, given that there are many idle projects and abandoned land nationwide. If bottlenecks in the real estate market can be cleared, it is possible that Vietnam will achieve economic growth of 6–7 per cent this year. Meanwhile, green transformation and sustainable development are inevitable trends today.”

“Now, we feel more relieved about interest rates and exchange rates. Indeed, the US dollar has depreciated by 1.53 per cent in the past month. At this rate, the US dollar will certainly continue to lose value if the Fed cuts interest rates. In this context, the Vietnamese government and the State Bank of Vietnam are moving in the right direction.”

In the same vein, Nguyen Ba Hung, chief economist at the Asian Development Bank (ADB) office in Vietnam, said, “Amid global and regional economic headwinds, Asia Pacific, including Vietnam, paints a relatively brighter picture than other regions. Vietnam is forecast to grow 6 per cent this year by ADB, which is higher than the average growth foecast of 4.5 per cent in Southeast Asia.”

“The big stories to look out for this year are the US election and interest rate cuts in developed markets,” he said. "Policy movements and elections are milestones, but the press and media have exaggerated the situation. Not to mention who wins the US election, the main trends continue to be the strategic competition between the US and China and the US's efforts to resolve the war between Ukraine and Russia. These factors will create new variables in the global economy, affecting production and the supply chain.”

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