GDP may increase by an average of 7 per cent in 2021-2025

The conference on Vietnam's economic perspectives for 2021-2025

Dang Duc Anh, deputy director of the NCIF, said that NCIF formulated two economic growth forecasts for 2021-2025. Accordingly, Vietnam's GDP growth rate will reach about 7 per cent per year during the period. The economy is expected to stay stable, with inflation at 3.5-4.5 per cent per year.

"With this growth forecast, by the end of 2025, Vietnam's GDP per capita will reach about $4,688, and Vietnam will be one of the high-middle-income countries of the world," Duc Anh said.

According to Duc Anh, in order to build the above growth forecast, the NCIF has assessed Vietnam's economic foundations in 2016-2020, considering domestic and foreign impacts, especially in the context of deeper integration with opportunities and challenges from new-generation free trade agreements.

Evaluating Vietnam's socio-economic development in 2016-2020, the NCIF's report said that, despite difficulties, the economy has still achieved impressive results.

“GDP growth is about 6.84 per cent per year, reaching the goal of 6.5-7 per cent set for the period," Duc Anh said.

Regarding Vietnam's economic prospects in 2021-2025, the NCIF’s representative also said that the Vietnamese economy will have both advantages and difficulties.

The widespread Fourth Industrial Revolution and the participation in new-generation free trade agreements such as the CPTPP and EVFTA are expected to bring many economic development opportunities to Vietnam through export expansion, investment, and the application of science and technology.

In particular, growth in 2021-2025 will still depend on the construction and service sectors, in which two important groups are the manufacturing and processing industry, and the wholesale and retail sector. The transformation of the growth model towards increased productivity, quality, and efficiency, with the main motivation being science and technology and innovation, will help maintain high and stable growth for the Vietnamese economy.

However, Vietnam will also continue to be negatively impacted by the global economy slowing down as trade protection and trade conflicts increase. Export and investment activities face many risks.