Vietnam’s exports to hit almost $535 billion by 2030

November 30, 2021 | 12:07
"Future of Trade 2030: Trends and markets to watch" – a new research by Standard Chartered – projects that global exports will almost double from $17.4 trillion to $29.7 trillion over the next decade. The report reveals 13 markets that will drive much of this growth, identifies major corridors, and five trends shaping the future of global trade. Vietnam is a key driver of this global trade growth, with its exports projected to grow at an average annual rate of more 7 per cent to cross $535 billion by 2030.
Vietnam’s exports to hit almost $535 billion by 2030

Additionally, the research found that 41 per cent of global corporates currently do or plan to manufacture in Vietnam within the next five to 10 years. This is evidence that Vietnam will be a major driver of global trade growth over the next decade.

Future growth corridors

The USA and Mainland China will continue to be the largest export corridors for Vietnam, accounting for 26 per cent and 19 per cent of total exports in 2030, respectively.

India is a fast-growing export corridor for Vietnam with 11 per cent average growth per year from 2020 to 2030.

According to the study, Vietnam is an emerging manufacturing powerhouse with expanding international trading relationships. The following sectors will dominate exports in 2030:

Sector

Share of exports (2030)

2020-2030 CAGR

Machinery & electricals

40 per cent

6.4 per cent

Textile & apparel

21 per cent

6.4 per cent

Agriculture & food

15 per cent

8.1 per cent

Global overview: 13 markets driving future trade growth

Market

Exports in 2030 ($)

Average annual growth rate

Key corridors

Bangladesh

51 billion

7 per cent

India, UAE, USA

Hong Kong

939 billion

5.7 per cent

Japan, Mainland China, USA

India

563 billion

7.6 per cent

Hong Kong, Singapore, USA

Indonesia

347 billion

8.1 per cent

India, Mainland China, USA

Kenya

10 billion

7.7 per cent

Pakistan, Uganda, USA

Mainland China

5,022 billion

7.1 per cent

Germany, Malaysia, Vietnam

Malaysia

498 billion

8.3 per cent

India, Mainland China, Singapore

Nigeria

112 billion

9.7 per cent

India, Indonesia, Mainland China

Saudi Arabia

354 billion

7.6 per cent

India, Mainland China, South Korea

Singapore

687 billion

7.4 per cent

India, Mainland China, Malaysia

South Korea

971 billion

7.1 per cent

India, Mainland China, Vietnam

UAE

298 billion

6.1 per cent

India, Mainland China, Singapore

Vietnam

535 billion

7.0 per cent

India, Mainland China, USA

“Vietnam is a growing global manufacturing hub as foreign firms continue to invest in the market, incentivised by the availability of labour, geographical proximity to global supply chains, and its foreign direct investment-friendly policies. The country also benefits from strengthening international integration through multiple free trade agreements (FTAs), such as the EU-Vietnam FTA, UK-Vietnam FTA, Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), and Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), allowing it to expand its exports, move up the value chain across sectors, and create skilled jobs. We are very positive about Vietnam’s future trade growth and committed to offering our support by leveraging our unrivalled international network and deep local knowledge,” said Michele Wee, CEO of Standard Chartered Vietnam.

The research, based on economic modelling for export projections, also includes a survey of more than 500 C-suite and senior leaders in global companies.

Global trade will be reshaped by five key trends: the wider adoption of sustainable and fair-trade practices; a push for more inclusive participation; greater risk diversification; more digitisation, and a rebalancing towards high-growth emerging markets. Almost 90 per cent of the corporate leaders surveyed agreed that these trends will shape the future of trade and will form part of their five to 10-year cross-border expansion strategies.

Globalisation will drive the next decade of growth. Despite the recent push towards onshoring, growth corridors of the future will not just be intraregional – they will be global spanning Africa-East Asia; ASEAN-South Asia; East Asia-Europe; East Asia- Middle East; East Asia-Europe; South Asia-US.

Asia, Africa, and the Middle East will see a ramp-up in investment flows, with 82 per cent of respondents saying they are considering new production locations in these regions in the next five to 10 years, supporting the trend towards rebalancing to emerging markets and greater risk diversification of supply chains.

Enabling sustainable supply chains

The research found a significant trend towards the adoption of sustainable trade practices in response to climate concerns and a rising wave of conscious consumerism. However, while almost 90 per cent of corporate leaders acknowledged the need to implement these practices across their supply chains, only 34 per cent ranked it as a top three priority for execution over the next five to 10 years.

Standard Chartered, in line with its commitment to help make global trade more sustainable and drive the transition to net-zero, launched a Sustainable Trade Finance proposition to enable companies to build more sustainable and resilient supply chains. In addition, we offer a suite of sustainable finance solutions to channel capital towards helping companies achieve their net-zero goals.

Simon Cooper, CEO Corporate and Institutional Banking and Europe and the Americas, Standard Chartered, said: “The predicted doubling of global trade offers strong evidence that globalisation is still working, despite recent dislocation. In addition to the growth of intra-regional trade pathways, the corridors of the future will still cut across continents."

He added: “Against this backdrop, we continue to focus on making globalisation work for more markets and businesses, ranging from micro to multinational, and drive a more sustainable and inclusive model for global trade. This includes growing our range of sustainable finance solutions to help our corporate clients implement sustainable and fair-trade practices across their supply chains.”

By Standard Chartered

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