ADB raises economic growth forecast in 2014 – 2015 for Vietnam

December 19, 2014 | 09:30

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Vietnam’s economic growth prospect is expected to be at 5.6 percent and 5.8 percent in 2014 and 2015, respectively, according to Asian Development Bank (ADB).

It is a 0.1 percent increase over the previous forecast, according to the most updated report of ADB on economic growth prospects for Asia in 2014-2015 released on Wednesday.

Earlier, in Asia Prospects report published in September, ADB forecast Vietnam grew just 5.5 percent this year and 5.7 percent in 2015.

According to the ADB, economic conditions and consumer confidence in Vietnam increasingly improved with personal spending in the third quarter of this year rose 5.1 percent.

Meanwhile, during the period, Vietnam's GDP growth was at 5.6 percent over the same period last year.

ADB said that the economic activities in Vietnam have yet been affected as much as previously forecast after the disturbance caused by the East Sea incident in May this year.

In early May, China illegally placed Haiyang Shiyou 981 oilrig in the territorial waters of Vietnam, causing economic turbulence, as people were scared of a possible armed conflict between the two countries in the sea.

Moreover, the move of the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) to lower interest rates recently has also helped Vietnam ease credit conditions and improved the investment climate in the country.

According to the ADB report, despite the decrease in domestic investment due to weakening credit growth, foreign direct investment to Vietnam increased 14 percent over the same period last year in the first 3 quarters of 2014, pushing the total investment (domestic and foreign) to increase 4.8 percent.

In addition, exports of Vietnam also grew faster than imports.

ADB also forecast inflation rate of Vietnam in 2014 will be at 4.2 percent, 0.3 percent lower than the previous forecast of 4.5 percent, before rising to 5.5 percent in subsequent years.

The growth outlook for developing Asia remains steady, even though momentum slowed in the second half of 2014, but the declining oil prices represent a golden opportunity for many beneficial reforms, said ADB in the new report.

In a supplement to its Asian Development Outlook 2014 Update, ADB forecasts gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the region of 6.1 percent in 2014, down from 6.2 percent expected in September, and 6.2 percent in 2015, down from 6.4 percent.

Developing Asia, comprising the 45 ADB developing member countries, grew 6.1 percent in 2013. Growth projections for Central Asia, East Asia, and Southeast Asia are revised downward. There is no change for South Asia. The Pacific region’s growth outlook is adjusted upward.

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