Economic stats fail to impress NA

Official statistics released by the government last week showed that the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew 7.4 per cent in the first nine months of this year.
Vietnam’s growth is expected to fulfill the government’s economic target of 7.5 per cent for 2004, despite a record-high consumer price index and other serious set backs since the beginning of the year.
The government’s figures are in line with those of the Asian Development Bank, which predicted that Vietnam’s economy would continue its strong growth on the back of encouraging economic performances, strong domestic demand and an expanding export industry.
The government report showed that compared to the same period last year, industry increased by 15.5 per cent, export revenue leapt 27 per cent ($19.1 billion) and import turnover rose by 21 per cent ($22.5 billion) in the first nine months of 2004.
“These figures demonstrate that Vietnam’s economy is developing in a positive manner due to strict management by the government,” said Le Manh Hung, director of the General Statistics Office. “I think the economic growth is particularly encouraging given the fact that Vietnam was hit by bird flu, high global commodity prices and a number of natural disasters.”
Last June, a high-ranking government official promised to push the country’s GDP to 7.7-8 per cent in the second half of this year -- the highest rate in the world.
Minister of Planning and Investment Vo Hong Phuc said that these economic targets were “ambitious but achievable”.
“I think we can achieve this growth rate because of impressive developments in the industrial and services sectors,” Phuc said.
However, economists believe that such targets will be very difficult to achieve due to record-high consumer price indexes (7-9 per cent) and sharp rises in the price of materials on international markets.
Meanwhile, the government’s economic achievements have not met the National Assembly’s wishes, whose role has been significantly strengthened in recent years.
Chairman of the National Assembly’s Budget and Economic Board Nguyen Duc Kien said GDP growth rates of 7.4-7.5 per cent were well below the rates of 7.5-8 per cent the government committed to in 2004.
“There is room for higher growth rates if the government manages development projects and public works programmes more efficiently,” Kien said.
He said the government’s reforms of state-owned enterprises were being conducted at a snail’s pace, which were putting the brakes on growth.
According to Kien, the recent downturn in foreign direct investment inflows and official development assistance loans would also affect the nation’s economy.
Despite these challenges, the government recently announced ambitious GDP targets of 8-8.5 per cent for 2005.
However, Kien said the government should aim for even higher rates of 8-8.8 per cent while launching stronger initiatives to realise the targets.
He recommended that the government implement measures to diversify capital mobilisation channels for development, like releasing government bonds and shares in state-owned enterprises onto international markets.
In addition, he said the services sector should be further opened to attract investment from foreign and private sectors.
“The government can achieve its economic development plans only when it dares to apply strong and bold measures,” he said.