Weighing stock market opportunities in H2

Tran Minh Hoang, head of Research at Vietcombank Securities, assumed that part of the money flow has made exit from the stock market, but such a money stream would make a swift comeback once the global economic picture shows more buoyant signs. By that, the market trend would quickly be shifted into a positive mood compared to the present.

“Albeit, there often firms with exceptional quarter-based business results going beyond expectations, and some sectors continue to lure money streams recently, such as petroleum, chemicals, fertiliser, and retail – which would further secure upbeat revenue and profit growth in this quarter,” said Hoang.

The money flow is heading the sectors with anticipated robust profit growth in Q3

Meanwhile, Duong Hoang Linh, head of Research at Sacombank Securities, noted industrial real estate, fertiliser, seafood, and coal will continue to fetch fair growth so that the investors might avail of market corrections to buy in the tickers of these sectors.

The September market strategic report at VNDIRECT Securities gave a forecast that until the end of October, when Q3 business results are unveiled, the money flow would find its way to sectors with rosy results, such as tourism, aviation, industry, auto, retail, food and beverage, and petroleum – all of which might pick up strongly rooted on their low developments in the similar period last year.

With respect to the business perspective, VNDIRECT put high expectations on banking, technology, food and beverage, power, and petroleum and those benefit from current accelerated public investment. Meanwhile, steel, apparel, and woodwork exports might fall into the doldrums.

For its part, SSI Research estimates that in the second half of this year, several sectors such as industrial real estate, retail, and power might eye growth ranging from 20-50 per cent on-year, from there providing a buffer to ticker price upsurge.

Dao Minh Chau, Equity Research deputy director at SSI Research said, “Many tickers belonging to these sectors have seen prices soaring by 40-50 per cent in the past two months so that the ticker price would be divided in the upcoming period.”

Chau forecast that the anticipated profit growth of most aforesaid sectors would be lower next year compared to this year in which some sectors might even catch a negative profit growth compared to this year’s peak, such as petroleum, chemicals, and fertilisers.

Vu Thi Thu Thuy, head of Private Customers Research and Advisory at Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corporation, noted that the US Federal Reserve would make triple interest rate policy announcements until the year-end.

With the interest rate trending higher, the greenback would become stronger and the money flow would flow back to the US market, instead of pivoting to other markets where the costs become more expensive. This would directly influence the global stock market in the short-term, including that of Vietnam.

In Thuy's words, macro factors internationally contain many uncertainties, causing difficulties to Vietnam’s economy. In such a situation, the firms that need to import huge volumes of input materials or those incurring big foreign currency loans would feel the sting.

By contrast, several sectors like power and water, industrial real estate, petroleum, food, retail, and chemicals would effectively avail of the rebound needs of the economy.

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