Careful prep to ensure 2025 growth success

At the Investing 2025 conference last week hosted by VIR, Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu, director of the Institute for Research and Development of Global Financial and Real Estate Markets, commented that the impacts from 2024 will continue to last, along with new events.

“With Donald Trump’s second term in the White House, the world will have to face drastic trade protection policies, in which Vietnam will also be strongly affected. This requires careful preparation because 2025 could be a challenging year for the Vietnamese economy,” Hieu said.

Careful prep to ensure 2025 growth success

According to him, in 2025, the exchange rate will continue to be affected by the re-elected US president’s economic policies.

Experts at the conference said that a potential tax cut for the well-off will increase the US budget deficit and potentially force the US government to issue bonds with high interest rates to balance the budget.

Barry Weisblatt, director of analysis at VNDirect Securities, said that its previous scenario of forecasting that the US Fed could cut interest rates three times next year is facing challenges due to inflation risks from the incoming president’s policies.

“With the DXY index anchored high, the VND exchange rate will be under a lot of pressure. We also leave open the risk that the State Bank of Vietnam will have to raise interest rates if the exchange rate pressure gets out of control due to fluctuations in the trade policy next year,” said Weisblatt.

Dr. Luong Van Khoi, deputy president of the Central Institute for Economic Management, said at the conference that the new US administration inherits a huge amount of government debt. “The fiscal policy space will therefore be unpredictable and monetary policy will be loosened, greatly affecting the exchange rate. Another variable is the impact of the new US tariff policy,” Khoi said.

Nguyen Viet Duc, director of Digital Business at VPBank Securities, added that the Vietnamese stock market should be on a strong trajectory in 2025. “The Vietnamese stock market is converging many factors for a positive outlook. Looking at the long term, it is possible to choose stocks of enterprises with return on equity over 15 per cent; looking at the short term, it is the policy factor,” Duc said.

He recommended that investors pay attention to several industry groups when choosing a portfolio: energy, oil and gas, real estate, retail, and banking.

Meanwhile, Nguyen Van Dinh, vice president of the Vietnam Real Estate Association, also predicted that the real estate market would enter a new cycle in 2025.

“Along with improved institutional quality, the market is expected to flourish. The important factors affecting real estate include institutions, macroeconomics, planning and infrastructure, financing, and information systems, which all show positive signals,” Dinh said.

Le Quang Hung, senior director of Investment Analysis at Techcom Capital, said that although the current valuation level on the stock market is quite reasonable for long-term investment, it is still necessary to consider risk management.

“Therefore, investment assets should not only include stocks but also need to allocate a proportion related to fixed-income assets such as bonds, deposits or sustainable credits,” Hung said. “The stock investment channel will be very attractive in 2025, but we also recommend that customers and investors manage risks by allocating their portfolios to many asset channels.”

Nguyen Tri Hieu, director, Institute for Research and Development, Global Financial and Real Estate Markets Vietnam’s economy in 2025 faces several key uncertainties. Firstly, exchange rates are expected to remain under pressure. The incoming US president may impose high import tariffs on countries with trade surpluses with the US. If tariffs on China reach 60 per cent and are at least 25 per cent for other countries, Vietnam’s exports to the US could face major challenges. The second factor is foreign trade. Vietnam relies heavily on the US. and protectionist policies, coupled with plans to expel undocumented immigrant workers, could lead to labour shortages there, driving inflation and impacting the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. The third factor is geopolitics. Hotspots such as Ukraine, the Middle East, and, more recently, the Korean Peninsula are likely to produce unpredictable developments, influencing global currencies and shaping Vietnam’s economic strategies. The final factor is Vietnam’s domestic economy. Many businesses are still struggling to recover from the long-term impacts of the pandemic. Government and central bank support has been insufficient to enable a full recovery. However, Vietnam also has significant opportunities. The country could attract investment from US companies, particularly in the high-tech and semiconductor sectors. Additionally, Vietnamese goods may benefit from lower tariffs compared to Chinese products when exporting to the US. Nguyen Viet Duc, head of Digital Business VPBank Securities VPBank holds a positive outlook for the stock market in 2025. For long-term investment, leading companies with a return on equity above 15 per cent are worth considering. Meanwhile, for short-term stock investments, two critical factors are policy and trends. In the coming year, VPBank has high expectations for the energy sector, particularly stocks in oil and gas, petroleum retail, and fuel transportation from overseas. For the energy sector, even if inflation rises, the prices and exchange rates of key commodities like petroleum are likely to increase, ensuring portfolio value remains intact. The second sector anticipated to perform well is real estate. The real estate market is showing clear signs of recovery in the north and initial revival in the south, with strong purchasing power among residents. Under the current compensation frameworks, companies with large land reserves are poised to benefit significantly. The most important sector for 2025 will be banking, a critical driver of the stock market, as it accounts for 40-50 per cent of market capitalisation. In this sector, bad debts have started to decline, and credit growth has reached 15 per cent this year, significantly higher than the previous year. This growth momentum is expected to continue next year. Furthermore, public investment will draw significant capital from the banking sector, particularly from state-owned banks.