Effects of the US election results on the Vietnamese market

The global financial market wobbled when Donald Trump was chosen as the new US President, but gradually stabilised later. What should we expect in the upcoming time?

Right before the US presidential election, many securities investors prepared for the worst scenario for them, but only saw it as a provisional plan. The provisional plan, however, came true this time. Market observers have forecast that international investors may sell off securities on a global scale in the upcoming sessions. In addition, forecasts also show that Donald Trump’s victory may further depreciate the US dollar against a sharp jump in gold prices.

Speaking of possibilities, the recent election would tumble the global financial market in a similar fashion as the UK’s Brexit did in the past. The impacts this time, however, may not be temporary—we may be looking at stronger and longer-lasting effects.

How do you foresee the event’s impact on the Vietnamese economy?

Volatilities in the global financial market will directly affect Vietnam. The Vietnamese stock market may undergo marked changes which will not be a simple psychological act, it is also related to chaos in the global stock market. The investors, therefore, should make provisions for the worse scenario. Gold prices in the domestic market, by contrast, may increase sharply in proportion with the world market.

As for the exchange rate, Donald Trump’s victory has led to a significantly depreciating US dollar and some countries may think of a possible adjustment of their home currencies. Vietnam currently has favourable conditions to maintain a stable exchange rate. However, we need to keep tabs on the world market and consider whether a stable exchange rate will be beneficial for us. It would be unfavourable for our export business if our exchange rate remained stable amidst a general adjustment at our competitors.

In light of Trump’s presidency, do you think the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise the US dollar interest rate next month?

This is unlikely. A Fed hike may cause the dollar to appreciate again, which will help balance the greenback after a recent depreciation in the wake of recent election results.

However, the US economy will suffer if the financial market is in disarray. The Fed, therefore, will be very careful in considering the dollar interest rate in the upcoming time.

What are your thoughts on the new US President’s tactic of economic monitoring?

As far as we know, Donald Trump’s victory was a hard-to-predict result. Running up to the elections, 70 per cent of Trump’s election campaign focused on Ms Clinton and people’s concerns, such as migration from Mexico, the failures of the on-going government or people’s security.

In fact, Trump is an excellent salesman, but more time is needed to assess how his policies will shape the US economy and maybe even more to see its global impacts.

In my view, in the upcoming time the new president will focus on solving internal matters rather than external affairs.

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