Vietnam CCI advances in September: ANZ-Roy Morgan latest survey

The small gain in September was driven by increased optimism about the country’s overall economic prospects in the next year and over the next five year course.

Accordingly, in terms of personal finances, 29 per cent of Vietnamese respondents said their families are 'better off' financially than the same period last year, down 2ppts from August and the lowest value recorded for the indicator since November 2014.

In addition, 50 per cent (up 4ppts from August) of respondents expect Vietnam to have ‘good times’ financially during the next 12 months, in contrast to a 12 per cent (unchanged) who expect ‘bad times’ financially.

Over the next five years, 61per cent (up 6ppts from August) of respondents expect the country to have ‘good times’ economically compared to only 7 per cent (unchanged) who expect Vietnam to have ‘bad times’ economically.

ANZ chief economist South Asia, ASEAN & Pacific, Glenn Maguire said Vietnam continues to find itself in the remarkable stead of being the only Asian economy not recording negative import and export growth which is strongly bucking the regional trade recession.

However, dynamics within the Vietnamese economy will clearly not be immune to a weaker global trade environment and the September confidence survey may contain the first hints of caution among local consumers, Maguire noted.

There is also a very clear split between short term personal financial sentiment and the medium to longer term outlook for the economy.

“The short term assessment on personal finances may have been eroded by policy decisions to weaken the Vietnam dong and widen its trading band in August, measures which will make imports more expensive for the average Vietnamese household. However, over the medium term this is a prudent policy choice that will retain Vietnam’s export competitiveness and ensure continued insulation from the regional trade recession,

“We think a sharp erosion in confidence in Vietnam is highly unlikely. Our expectation of resilience stems from Vietnam’s trade performance in the coming months, thanks to strong FDI inflows in recent years,” Maguire commented.