2017 GDP growth surpasses expectations

Nguyen Bich Lam, director general of GSO, said the performance was a result of the concerted efforts of the government, ministries, and sectoral stakeholders

Stable macroeconomic indicators

On December 27, 2017, the General Statistics Office (GSO) announced that the gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 6.81 per cent in 2017.

This growth exceeded the targeted 6.7 per cent and was the highest since 2011. The figure beat almost all estimates, including the revised forecasts of the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) of 6.7 per cent and HSBC’s 6.6 per cent. Only Standard Chartered Bank, with a revised forecast of 6.8 per cent, was accurate.

According to data from GSO, the agriculture, forestry and fisheries sector has recovered significantly to post an increase of 2.9 per cent, contributing 0.44 percentage point the whole economy’s growth. The industrial and construction sector grew by 8 per cent, contributing 2.77 percentage point, while the service sector grew by 7.44 per cent, contributing 2.87 percentage point.

Thereby, the scale of the economy at current price is valued VND5,008 trillion ($220.13 billion). GDP per capita was estimated at $2.385, gaining $170 on-year. The agriculture, forestry and fisheries sector accounted for 15.34 per cent of the whole economy, while the industrial and construction sector captured 33.34 per cent. The services sector made up 41.32 per cent.

The index of industrial production (IIP) of 2017 rose by 9.4 per cent, much higher than the 7.4 per cent in 2016. Of the index categories, the processing and manufacturing industry increased by 14.5 per cent (highest increase within the last six years), contributing the highest proportion to the whole industrial sector’s growth.

The total retail sales of consumer goods and services in 2017 was estimated at $173 billion, up 10 per cent against last year. International visitors to Vietnam were estimated at 12.9 million, up 29.1 per cent.

The consumer price index (CPI) in 2017 rose by an average 3.53 per cent compared to 2016, lower than the preset goal.

The export turnover was estimated at $213.77 billion in 2017, up 21.1 per cent compared to last year, the highest increase over the past years. Import turnover was estimated at $211.1 billion, up 20.8 per cent. Trade surplus hit $2.7 billion, including $26.1 billion from the domestic sector’s trade deficit and $28.8 billion of the FDI sector’s trade surplus.

Forecasts of a brighter future

This year also saw a new record as export and import turnover hit over $425 billion throughout the year. It is forecasted to increase further next year.

There were 126,859 newly-registered enterprises, 35,200 adding capital, and 26,448 enterprises resuming operations in 2017. Total newly-registered and added capital was $139.13 billion.

According to the survey on the business trends of processing and manufacturing enterprises, 44.8 per cent of respondents assessed that the business situation improved in the fourth quarter, 18.7 per cent claimed they still had difficulties, and 36.5 per cent said that it was ‘okay’.

48.2 per cent of respondents expected that the business environment of the first quarter of 2018 will be even better, 16.1 per cent forecasted more difficulties and 35.7 per cent expect similar circumstances.

GSO also estimated that GDP growth will increase by approximately 6.7 per cent in 2018.

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